Greasy (unprocessed) wool supplies are a focus of the wool market at present. This article takes a look at the trends in supply of micron groupings, using AWTA data, to show that there are a range of trends and year on year changes in play at present.
With Australian AWTA volumes running 21% below the levels of three seasons ago and little reported stocks available, the wool industry is wondering what will happen. Some are wondering why a full blown supply shock is not doubling prices, some are wondering if it is the end of the industry as volumes slip below some unknown threshold and so on. It is a classic case of the wool industry worrying about distractions and not core concerns such as where we can squeeze another 0.5% to 1% productivity gain out of the system (hint: genetics is a good start) to help compete with other farm enterprises.
In some sense the supply shock has arrived with the average merino MPG price rising from 1600 to 2600 cents during the past year, a 62% rise from early last season (or when compared to the lowest price of the preceding five years a rise of 88%). In terms of volume threshold to define a fibre, vicuna manages to get by on 10-30 tonnes production per season (depending how it is measured) – see this late May 2024 Mecardo article – so if this is an issue there is plenty of scope for the wool industry to shrink and continue to be actively used as a fibre.
Figure 1 shows the volume of AWTA core test bales for wool 15 micron and finer in the Australian clip, for the past two decades. Only 12% of the clip is usually tested in the first two months of the season so the F2027 estimates are preliminary only. Shown at the top of each seasonal column is the year-on-year percentage change in volume.
The volume for 12 micron and finer is hard to read, compared to the 13–15-micron volumes, which accurately reflects how small the volume of production is for these micron categories on the very edge of the merino micron distribution. However, if you look closely, the volume for the season to date is up by 164% which is a big rise. We wait to see if this trend is continued and if so, the impact on price. For the volume of 13-15 micron the rising trend is clear, with annual volumes now well into the 25 to 30 thousand farm bales.
In Figure 2 the annual AWTA volumes for the 16 to 18 micron and 19-micron categories are given. Up until 2023-2024 the 19-micron volume basically varied at around 350,000 bales per season. In the past two seasons, and for the early part of this season, the volume of 19-micron wool has started to fall, down to 293,000 bales last season and at this stage looking to be down another 6% this season. This is an issue as the lower volume for this core merino micron category indicates a fall in merino sheep numbers.
The other series shown in Figure 2 is the 16–18-micron volume, which trended higher through to 2024, peaking at 633,000 bales. Last season the volume was 556,000 bales (down 12%) and is running lower this season to date by 12%.
Figure 3 shows the AWTA volumes for 20-22-micron wool, once the core of the Australian (and wider southern hemisphere) merino clip for the past 20 years, including the current season adjusted pro-rata against data from July-August 2025. The declining trend in 20–22-micron wool is clear, with some counter trend increases in supply as in 2017 and 2022-2023. The current season looks to be in the process of a counter trend increase in volume, up by 7% to the end of August. Lower supply is having an impact on price through an increasing price ratio to non-wool staple fibres (as outlined in this September 2025 article).
In Figure 4 the (now) crossbred micron categories are shown. The 27 micron and broader categories have varied around 250,000 bales per season. Given seasonal recovery in southern South Australia and Victoria it is quite likely the volume will rebuild to this level (currently the season projection is for 213,000 bales). The 23–26-micron picture is muddied by the retreat of merino from these categories. Since 2019 the volume has been in the 160,000 to 175,000 bale range (COVID years excepted) with the current season estimate marginally below this range. Crossbred wool production in Australia looks to be far more buoyant than merino production.
What does it mean?
The chronic issue of low productivity in the sheep industry continues to be reflected in lower sheep numbers which leads to lower merino wool production. Lower sheep numbers help support and boost sheep meat prices (lamb and mutton), which adds another level of complexity to the situation. As the article shows though, not all wool categories have falling supply, so be careful in projecting a one size fits all view of supply and price onto all micron categories.
Key Points
- Sub -16-micron production is growing (so is 16 micron).
- Crossbred wool volumes appear likely to bounce given a spring in the southern sheep regions
- Broad merino (20-22 micron) production continues to trend lower as this section of the market struggles to compete with cheaper fibres
- That leaves the core merino volumes which are currently under downward pressure
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: AWTA, ICS, Mecardo
