How much mutton is left in the paddock is a question that pundits and processors are trying to gauge, and one of the reasons the price has been zigzagging the past couple of months. Slaughter levels have remained elevated this year as strong demand and southern drought pushed sheep to the yards and the kill floor. Some sheep-producing areas have received rain relief, but as they face some bitter winter weather, how many more ewes will be offloaded?
Starting with flock numbers, Meat and Livestock Australia estimated we had about 79 million sheep in 2024, and forecast in February that this year, that figure would fall to 73.2 million head. Before this, the MLA and Australian Wool Innovation’s Sheep Producer’s Survey, last conducted in its entirety in October, calculated that on the back of those intending to change the size of their sheep flock, the lamb flock would decrease by 1% this year. In other words, flock numbers were on their way down, having peaked for the current cycle last year. The next producer survey results are due out soon and will offer insight into numbers.
Moving onto slaughter, the forecast from MLA was for the sheep kill to decline 20% year-on-year in 2025. This was on the back of 11.8 million being slaughtered last year, the largest number in nearly two decades. According to National Livestock Reporting Service weekly figures, for the year-to-date, sheep slaughter is only 1% below where it was at the same time last year. The average weekly kill number is sitting at about 3% below 2024’s. First quarter data from ABS showed sheep slaughter at 2.88 million head, compared to 2.69 million in the same period of 2024.
Traditionally, sheep slaughter is more consistent throughout the year than lambs, with the five-year weekly average figures only differing by about 100 sheep when comparing the first six months and the second six months. Historically, however, it does peak in November, meaning some of the biggest mutton trading weeks of the year are yet to come, and weekly numbers are showing we’ve only processed about 44% of the forecast 9.8 million sheep so far.
Live sheep export numbers have dropped 14% for the year-to-date after a slow start and will now basically halt for the next three months. While this is only a small portion of mutton turn-off, it was forecast to increase by 20% this year and does offer some insight into numbers in the west. Live export accounted for just 8% of Western Australia’s sheep turnoff in 2023-24, compared to transfers to eastern states, which were 13%. For the 2024-25 financial year, to January, WA eastern transfer figures were at just 20% of what they were for the full 2023-24 year.
What does it mean?
The resilience of the mutton price has been a slight silver lining for those who decided to turn off ewes because of ongoing dry seasonal conditions so far this year. While it has only now risen to five-year-average levels, it hasn’t experienced any significant downward pressure either, currently averaging 431c/kg for the 2024-25 year, which is right on par with 2022-23. Obviously, we aren’t seeing prices to the same level as in flock rebuilding years, but there is scope for an increase if processor demand stays where it is.
Key Points
- Sheep slaughter was forecast to drop 20% this year, yet it is tracking less than 1% lower for the year-to-date.
- The National Mutton Indicator is trending in line with the five-year average and 2022-23 levels.
- The number of ewes left to lose from the flock will dictate prices for the rest of winter.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo, Meat and Livestock Australia, WA DPIRD, ABS
