The search for weight continues as buyers bid strongly for heavier cattle. With the supply agenda set by Meat & Livestock Australia last week, confidence looks to be on the upward trajectory in cattle markets.
Going around the
grounds in MLA saleyard reports, for the most part the market was upbeat for
both buyers and sellers. The supply of heavier cattle in Dubbo was strong and
market interest firm. Intense competition
for trade cattle and heavy cows was evident in Echuca. Roma supply tracked
sideways week on week but saw an overall improvement in pricing. Restockers and
southern processors were active in Dalby. Muchea saw an uptick in numbers and
the return of interest (but not yet bidding) from feedlot buyers. Dry
conditions continue to influence results in Wagga as lighter cattle dominate
supply and producers look to manage carrying capacity, resulting in a softer
result pricewise.
The Eastern Young
Cattle Indicator (EYCI) has tracked sideways this week. Despite higher
throughput and on the West Coast, the Western Young Cattle Indicator (WYCI)
declined 3¢ to 599¢ after yardings more than doubled this week for WA young
cattle.
Supply of heavy
steers increased 69% week on week, but the market absorbed the boost in supply
with ease as the National Heavy Steer Indicator improved 7¢ to 354¢/kg. Processor cows rose 6¢ to 294¢/kg after a
minor decline in numbers (4%).
East Coast cattle
slaughter last week declined for the third week in a row to 133K head. However,
this is still 4% higher than last year’s biggest week. Capacity has ticked upward,
and demand remains strong from the processing end as the East Coast cattle
slaughter number year to date is 17% higher than last year. It’s been a big
year for processors, and it is forecast to remain that way into 2025 by MLA.
With slaughter
expected to peak next year, what does this mean for price? Angus Brown took a
look this week on Mecardo (read more here). While cattle prices are currently
improving the potential upside could be limited by supply which has built over
the last couple of years and has only recently peaked. To push cattle supply
lower, a period of strong slaughter (and therefore lower prices at current
capacity) would be needed or another period of rebuild. In the medium term, the best-case scenario
for prices is increases in slaughter capacity so more cattle can be slaughtered
to take advantage of strong export prices.
Next week
Down south eyes are still on the rain radar, which will dictate restocker activity further south. Feeders to the North likely are confident in how the season is unfolding.
A historically high cattle market has pushed cattle-on-feed numbers lower for the September quarter. Confidence in the sector has far from waned, however, with capacity,
National cattle yardings jumped 13% week-on-week, unsurprisingly putting downward pressure on prices, but the market still showed a level of resilience considering the increase in
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly Livestock Products report last week, and the cattle industry has been setting new records. It appears
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Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Heavy cattle grabbing attention
Going around the grounds in MLA saleyard reports, for the most part the market was upbeat for both buyers and sellers. The supply of heavier cattle in Dubbo was strong and market interest firm. Intense competition for trade cattle and heavy cows was evident in Echuca. Roma supply tracked sideways week on week but saw an overall improvement in pricing. Restockers and southern processors were active in Dalby. Muchea saw an uptick in numbers and the return of interest (but not yet bidding) from feedlot buyers. Dry conditions continue to influence results in Wagga as lighter cattle dominate supply and producers look to manage carrying capacity, resulting in a softer result pricewise.
The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) has tracked sideways this week. Despite higher throughput and on the West Coast, the Western Young Cattle Indicator (WYCI) declined 3¢ to 599¢ after yardings more than doubled this week for WA young cattle.
Supply of heavy steers increased 69% week on week, but the market absorbed the boost in supply with ease as the National Heavy Steer Indicator improved 7¢ to 354¢/kg. Processor cows rose 6¢ to 294¢/kg after a minor decline in numbers (4%).
East Coast cattle slaughter last week declined for the third week in a row to 133K head. However, this is still 4% higher than last year’s biggest week. Capacity has ticked upward, and demand remains strong from the processing end as the East Coast cattle slaughter number year to date is 17% higher than last year. It’s been a big year for processors, and it is forecast to remain that way into 2025 by MLA.
With slaughter expected to peak next year, what does this mean for price? Angus Brown took a look this week on Mecardo (read more here). While cattle prices are currently improving the potential upside could be limited by supply which has built over the last couple of years and has only recently peaked. To push cattle supply lower, a period of strong slaughter (and therefore lower prices at current capacity) would be needed or another period of rebuild. In the medium term, the best-case scenario for prices is increases in slaughter capacity so more cattle can be slaughtered to take advantage of strong export prices.
Next week
Down south eyes are still on the rain radar, which will dictate restocker activity further south. Feeders to the North likely are confident in how the season is unfolding.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Nutrien Ag Solutions, MLA, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Weaner sales upside hanging on northern rain
We are still a month away from the annual January weaner sales, so it is a little difficult to make any bold statements about how
Capacity growth signals confidence in lotfeeding
A historically high cattle market has pushed cattle-on-feed numbers lower for the September quarter. Confidence in the sector has far from waned, however, with capacity,
Restockers show support in the north
National cattle yardings jumped 13% week-on-week, unsurprisingly putting downward pressure on prices, but the market still showed a level of resilience considering the increase in
Productivity gains thwarting old benchmarks
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly Livestock Products report last week, and the cattle industry has been setting new records. It appears
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.