Historically high cattle slaughter and beef production will continue in Australia in 2026 according to the latest Meat & Livestock Australia industry projections. Despite being in a traditional turn-off period, the herd is also expected to maintain current levels in the short term, before dropping in the coming years. Domestic cattle prices are expected to remain firm, as low cattle numbers in the US continue to support global demand (of course the disclaimer there being any new international trade barriers).
Many factors are now pointing towards the traditional turn-off versus rebuild female slaughter rate figure of 47% as no longer necessarily accurate at depicting national cattle herd intentions (2025 average was 53%). There’s little doubt that the record-territory slaughter and production in 2025 and now forecast for 2026 will push numbers lower. In September, MLA forecast this year’s herd number to be 31.01 million head, a dip of 0.1% on last year. The figure has now dropped to 30.78 million, a fall of 1%. Still a relatively small decline given turn-off, but it is in the long term when it starts to play out. The forecast for 2028 is now 7% lower than 2025.
Current fairly stable herd numbers are being supported by positive seasonal conditions in much of Northern Australia, almost entirely offsetting the drought conditions having been experienced across South Australia, Victoria and NSW and resulting in their herd’s shrinking. The stock turn-off ratio – all cattle slaughtered or exported live comparative to herd size – is expected to rise 1% to 33% in 2026 and remain above the long-term average of 28% for at least until 2028. Rather than the traditional high herd numbers or seasonal conditions which tend to induce a turn-off – which of course is the case in some areas – sustained strong cow prices due to the shortfall in the US has enticed more females onto the market.
There were 9.28 million head of cattle slaughtered in 2025, and the forecast is for that figure to climb to 9.45 million this year as strong prices and consistent record-level cattle on feed turn-off support throughput. As the herd contracts, so will slaughter but more significantly, dropping by about 600,000 head next year and being 13% lower by 2028. Live cattle exports for this year have been revised significantly lower since the September release (705,000 head now compared to 781,000 head then), but remained the same for 2027, and are expected to rise 1% by 2028 to their highest level since 2020.
What does it mean?
It looks to be another bumper year for the cattle industry as the global protein demand remains high, as does Australia’s ability to supply it. Significant weather events have been seemingly continuous in the past 12 months, but historically high herd numbers, along with a strong lot feeding sector has increased carcase weights and improved production capability right along the supply chain allowing our domestic market to capitalise on the shortfalls coming from other countries in the beef trade. While another year of record production will start to impact our herd size, expected firm domestic prices should see producer intentions maintain if not grow their own numbers. The conflict in Iran does pose multiple risks, as with most ag commodities, but that impact will only be known as it plays out.
Key Points
● Meat & Livestock Australia’s cattle herd numbers for 2026 revised slightly lower but remain above 30 million.
● Beef production and export forecasts for this year have been revised higher since September’s outlook.
● Stock turn-off ratio expected to increase this year and remain about 5% above the long-term average.
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Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, ABS Mecardo
