Cattle yardings fell this week to a touch over 38,000 head, which was the lowest volume to go through the yards since the first week of July. Slaughter continued to rise however, and although is a week delayed from yardings, does demonstrate that producers are perhaps more keen to go direct and know their returns rather than risk the market at the moment.
At 127,337 head for the week to Sunday, it was the highest National Livestock Reporting Service recorded weekly slaughter volume for the year-to-date and about 34,500 head more than the same week last year. Another interesting figure is the female slaughter – at nearly 49% last week, compared to about 42% in the corresponding week in 2022.
The national feeder steer price lost more ground this week, dropping a further 16¢/kg even with 1500 head less cattle eligible for the indicator. As scary as it is to think about, we are hitting the period where cattle going onto feed now will be ready for processing over the summer holiday period, when many processors have slowdowns or shutdowns, so lotfeeders aren’t looking for numbers. Along that same timeline, concern about how current restrictions and suspensions on certain live export yards for cattle destined for Indonesia seem to be rising, as the wet season closes in. An already full domestic market is unlikely to absorb many from this – especially at the right price for producers – if the trade slows down even further.
Restocker yearling steers and the Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator fell even more than the feeder price, losing 24¢/kg and 33¢/kg respectively for the week. This takes the restocker steer price to a 10% discount to the heavy steer indicator, which picked up nearly 12¢/kg in the past seven days. In comparison, AuctionsPlus recently reported that on their calculations, the restocker steer has been trading at an average of 18% premium to heavy steers since 2016. At 447¢/kg, the EYCI continues to find new lows for this cycle, now more than $6/head short of the same time last year.
National processor cows showed some resilience this week, now having lifted slightly from their sub-200¢/kg low to about 206¢/kg, up 8¢/kg for the week and only having lost 3¢/kg for the month. Meat and Livestock Australia reports this week that US total slaughter is down 28% year-on-year, but the female kill still indicates the herd is in destocking mode – meaning the slaughter should drop further when that rebuild stage is hit. Latest export data shows year-to-August volumes from Australia to the US are already up 62% (compared to total exports up 20%).
Next week
With slaughter still going up, there’s likely little reprieve for producers on the supply side of the equation. This could be further escalated by the issues in the north with Indonesian access, and some areas already calling a dry spring. The latest export volume data is good for the demand scenario, however the value side likely tells a different story.
Australian beef export volumes reached new highs in 2024 and are set to continue climbing in 2025. Our domestic beef herd reached maturation last year,
This spring-to-summer period has driven a significant improvement on the confidence front when we compare it to last year. With exports humming, capacity built and
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Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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Higher premiums for heavy steers
At 127,337 head for the week to Sunday, it was the highest National Livestock Reporting Service recorded weekly slaughter volume for the year-to-date and about 34,500 head more than the same week last year. Another interesting figure is the female slaughter – at nearly 49% last week, compared to about 42% in the corresponding week in 2022.
The national feeder steer price lost more ground this week, dropping a further 16¢/kg even with 1500 head less cattle eligible for the indicator. As scary as it is to think about, we are hitting the period where cattle going onto feed now will be ready for processing over the summer holiday period, when many processors have slowdowns or shutdowns, so lotfeeders aren’t looking for
numbers. Along that same timeline, concern about how current restrictions and suspensions on certain live export yards for cattle destined for Indonesia seem to be rising, as the wet season closes in. An already full domestic market is unlikely to absorb many from this – especially at the right price for producers – if the trade slows down even further.
Restocker yearling steers and the Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator fell even more than the feeder price, losing 24¢/kg and 33¢/kg respectively for the week. This takes the restocker steer price to a 10% discount to the heavy steer indicator, which picked up nearly 12¢/kg in the past seven days. In comparison, AuctionsPlus recently reported that on their calculations, the restocker steer has been trading at an average of 18% premium to heavy steers since 2016. At 447¢/kg, the EYCI continues to find new lows for this cycle, now more than $6/head short of the same time last year.
National processor cows showed some resilience this week, now having lifted slightly from their sub-200¢/kg low to about 206¢/kg, up 8¢/kg for the week and only having lost 3¢/kg for the month.
Meat and Livestock Australia reports this week that US total slaughter is down 28% year-on-year, but the female kill still indicates the herd is in destocking mode – meaning the slaughter should drop further when that rebuild stage is hit. Latest export data shows year-to-August volumes from Australia to the US are already up 62% (compared to total exports up 20%).
Next week
With slaughter still going up, there’s likely little reprieve for producers on the supply side of the equation. This could be further escalated by the issues in the north with Indonesian access, and some areas already calling a dry spring. The latest export volume data is good for the demand scenario, however the value side likely tells a different story.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, AuctionsPlus, Mecardo
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.