Australia imports around c.70-75% of our Ammonium Phosphate (AP) from international origins and historically the lions share has been sourced from China. In Q4 of 2019 and Q1 of 2020, China accounted for around 74% of the East Coast import market and 38% of the West Coast market, representing a total of 66% of all imported AP. China’s proximity to Australia has made it a favourable supply option. With a sail time of 17-20 days to major ports, changes in supply and demand dynamics could be met with a short lead and sail time, as well as the good, reliable quality.
However, the landscape began to shift in October 2021. China’s export policy on Ammonium Phosphate introduced restrictions on export volumes, forcing Australian importers to seek other sources. By the Q4 of 2021 and the Q1 of 2022, China’s share of the Australian market had declined to c.37% on the East Coast and 22% on the West Coast, with Morocco and Saudi Arabia stepping in to fill the gap.
Adapting to New Realities
The changeable and somewhat unpredictable nature of Chinese export policy has heavily shifted the import pattern of the Australian market over the past two seasons to other origins. In 2024 China now supplied only c.16% of the East Coast AP import market and 21% of the West Coast import market (18% total). Importers have had to adapt their strategies, planning imports to arrive as close to the sowing season as possible to mitigate price risks. This shift has led to a more compressed and complex supply chain, with vessels arriving just in time for the application window. If we look back to the 2023 sowing season, 353,000mt of AP’s were imported on the East Coast in Q4 of 2022, but a year later in Q4 of 2023, just 20,000mt were imported, the rest arriving later, in Q1 of 2024. The result? Unfortunately for East Coast growers, the logistical complications and vessel delays from a compressed supply chain caused issues with dispatch of products onto farm.
Impact on Supply Chains
The transition to new origins has shaken up the way the Australian supply chain operates. Sail times from Morocco and Saudi Arabia are much longer than from China, requiring better planning and coordination. Moroccan vessels, in particular, are larger, carrying 45-60,000mt compared to the 30,000mt vessels from China and Saudi Arabia. This has led to increased storage pressures at Australian ports, as sheds need to be cleared to accommodate the larger shipments.
The cost of freight from Morocco is also higher, so using larger vessels helps to make the journey economically viable. This, in turn, results in slower sail times and unloading processes, adding more complexity to the supply chain.
