Australian Federal Agriculture Minister Julie Collins is fresh off a visit to a feedlot in West Java, Indonesia, reiterating the importance of the live export trade to both sides of the market, and politically confirming the government's support of it. While other markets are impacted by regional unrest and domestic economic slowdowns, Australia’s domestic market demand is also playing a role in constraining exports, with strong competition coming from the south and export prices being impacted by the peak supply season.
Live cattle export numbers for the year-to-July are trending similarly to last year, sitting at just 2% lower. A slower July has impacted this, with first-half (January-June) figures 11% higher year-on-year. Just shy of 65,000 head were exported in July, with numbers for that particular month only being lower twice in the past decade. Totals for 2025 are now at about 6% below the five-year average for the same period. The 2024-25 financial year finished strongly, increasing by 4% and hitting the highest FY figure since 2020-21.
Indonesian market share of Australian live export has held firm at 69%, and cattle numbers for the January-July period have increased by 3% year-on-year. They are also tracking at 17% above the five-year average, and we have to go back to 2020 to find higher export numbers to Indonesia for the same period. While a vast majority of live cattle sold to Indonesia are destined for feedlots, this year has seen nearly 8000 head of breeder cattle exported there as well. This is the first time any significant number of breeders has been traded in that market since 2018, according to Meat & Livestock Australia.
It included about 1500 dairy cows exported in June as part of the Indonesian government’s push to improve domestic food security, as well as support its free nutritious meals for schoolchildren program. Indonesia has also now removed quota restrictions on Australian cattle imports. While this will have little impact on actual trade – the 2025 quota being well above the number of cattle Australia has historically sent/is likely to sell this year, and the Indonesian government still needing to issue permits to their importers – it’s another signal of support. Also to be noted, however, is Indonesia’s recent opening up of the live cattle trade with both Brazil and New Zealand, adding competition.
Australia’s second-largest live cattle market remains in Vietnam, where trade has fallen by 20% so far this year, and sits nearly 40% below the five-year-average. The trade is predominantly made up of slaughter cattle, and has struggled to rebound consistently since Covid, with 2025 year-to-date figures 68% below what they were in the same period in 2020, and current market share 14% compared to 28%.
Israel, unsurprisingly, has gone from having an 11% market share of Australian cattle exports in 2023 to holding just 1.5% now. This said, shipments to the country are currently 57% above the total 2024 number, all of which have been feeder cattle. China has also been on the decline this year, with year-to-date numbers less than half the same period in 2024, and the lowest they’ve been since 2015.
What does it mean?
Total live cattle exports from Australia were projected to lift 5% year-on-year in 2025, and to be 25% above 2024 levels by 2027. Historically, May, June, and December are the peak export number months, two of which are already behind us, and numbers have to lift by 7% in the remaining five months of the year to achieve this.
Australia’s domestic demand and price premium could be what hinders this. Brahman feeders steers ex Darwin are currently quoted at 340¢/kg. And while it isn’t like-for-like, as we don’t have any Northern Territory saleyards to pull from, the closest domestic equivalent we can get is the Queensland feeder steer indicator, currently sitting at 395¢/kg. In NSW, it is 498¢/kg. Southern feeders and processors looking further afield to fill supply and plenty of grass in the north could drag numbers out of the export trade.
Key Points
- Total live cattle exports are tracking 2% higher year-on-year for the January to May period.
- Indonesia remains the largest live export market but is currently tracking at decade-low levels.
- Extra numbers to Vietnam and a range of much smaller markets make up the total increase.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, LiveCorp, MLA, Mecardo
