Live export trade slips as domestic market soaks up supply
Australia’s live cattle export numbers lifted significantly in July but remain subdued for the year-to-date compared to the five-year-average. More competition for lower supply and strong prices has impacted some of the throughput. The trade has also been impacted by the purchasing power of the Indonesian currency, and that market’s input costs and industry regulations. […]
Was that the peak for lambs?
With record lamb and mutton prices, very strong wool values and the season to date having been the friendliest in years, sentiment in the sheep industry is running strong. Lamb prices have eased in recent weeks, which begs the question, have we seen the peak? The issue with forecasting lamb, sheep and wool supply, is […]
The north-south feed grain spread is opening again
Despite consuming more grain than ever locally, Australian feed grain prices usually follow international values closely as we are still a large exporter. In the north, prices remain at a premium however they are on the move again. After peaking in late July international wheat prices have been easing. As outlined in Friday’s comment, markets […]
The north-south divide is opening up again for young cattle
The cattle market felt the chill of mid-winter this week as prices fell across the board despite slightly lower throughput. Support remains seemingly strong in the south, however seasonal conditions have been less favourable in parts of the north, putting some of the pressure we saw in the late autumn back on the system. And […]
Wintery yarding push indicators lower
Lamb and sheep markets peaked early in winter and easing prices whilst ahead of schedule remain in line with typical seasonality. With more winter condition lambs entering the yards, buyers are exercising their right to be a bit picky when it comes to what they’re paying for lambs this week. Indicators all dropped again this […]
Black Sea Escalates, Wheat Looks Away
Some weeks are just meant to humble you. This past week was one of them. The volatility we’ve seen is a timely reminder that markets don’t have to make sense. As the old traders’ saying goes, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Some weeks are just meant to humble you. […]
Sheepmeat exports keep ahead of shortening supply
More tariffs and quota changes are popping up, so let’s reassess the red meat export outlook and its impact on the domestic livestock markets. As we discussed last week, Australian beef headed to the US remains tariff-free for the time being, however sheepmeat hasn’t been so lucky. The latest round of tariffs out of America […]
Wheat exports running strong
Part of the campaign on tariffs from the US over the past 18 months has been to help encourage trading partners to take more US produce. One of the deals which may concern wheat producers here is the Indonesian wheat deal. Indonesia is a major importer of wheat which is used in both human and […]
A bit of applied futures theory
The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) three months outlook points towards a weaker chance of a wet spring. This doesn’t mean that we’ll be in drought by October, but it’s worth looking at the probabilities and applying some futures pricing theory to cattle indicators. It is important that readers don’t take figure 1 on face […]
Weekly supply jump further assists price slide
The sheep and lamb market continued to ease this week, following the downward trend it has been experiencing since prices peaked at the end of June. Despite that trend, there was a significant uptick in both yardings this week and slaughter the week prior, with all major categories recording an increase in throughput. New season […]
More twists than a game of Snakes and Ladders
What a difference a week can make. Having watched risk premiums build steadily for a couple of weeks, those same premiums were stripped away almost instantly when the negotiators entered the chat room. The escalation in the Black Sea reached a tipping point last week, with the major combatants targeting each other’s port facilities and […]
More weaners come forward
Weaners remain on the move, and interest took a slight step back this week as we enter a transition period for cattle markets with spring fast approaching. Not a lot of rainfall in the last few weeks but strong prices have seen cattle come forward and remain strong for winter. The tip top winter premiums […]