With such a huge population, there is always talk about the size of the market in India. Recently, we received a query about opportunities for Australian cereal and oilseed exports to India, so here we delve into the data.
Australia’s primary agricultural exports to India are pulses. Lentils have long been the dominant export, but according to the ABARES Trade Dashboard, chickpeas surged significantly this financial year.
Figure 1 shows lentil and chickpea exports to India for the past five years, with the 2023-24 data only up to date to January. The growth in pulse exports to India is encouraging, and there is some speculation that it could shift into cereal and oilseed crops.
This begs the question, how much of our major crops does India import? Figure 2 gives a good idea of Indian demand for cereals and oilseeds. India is largely self-sufficient in wheat. India imports no canola or rapeseed, a little barley, and occasionally large volumes of wheat.
Figure 3 shows India is largely self-sufficient in wheat. India is one of the swinging countries that can at times be strong exporters of wheat, and at times of drought, will import enough to bolster stocks.
For 2023-24, India is projected to produce a small wheat surplus, expected to be stockpiled rather than exported. Barley imports are forecast at 250,000 tonnes this year—a relatively minor amount. Australia exported 1,000-1,500 tonnes of barley to India in 2021-22 and 2022-23, when China’s market was closed, but this trade has dwindled since China reopened.
While canola seed exports to India are absent, canola oil shows modest growth. From July to January, Australia shipped 1,320 tonnes of canola oil to India, valued at $2.2 million—a 530% volume increase. Still, this remains a small fraction of Australia’s broader canola seed exports.
What does it mean?
The opportunities for Australian croppers in the Indian market remain relatively confined to pulses. When India does have a shortage of wheat, Black Sea origins are more competitive in the market, and it is a similar story with barley.
Key Points
- Australia’s main agricultural exports to India are lentils and chickpeas.
- India’s imports of wheat are dependent on their season, but they are usually self-sufficient.
- India do import small amounts of canola oil from Australia, but it’s small compared to our seed exports.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ABS, ABARES, USDA, Indian Govt Trade, Mecardo
