The real surprise from this week’s market didn’t come from the usual reports of price or supply but the ABS release of the 2023 cattle herd estimates at 29.9 million head. The new methodology employed by the ABS has found an additional ~4 million head to the cattle herd. While unexpected, this news shouldn’t impact the direction of the market.
A bit of rain fell in parts of southern SA, western Vic and
WA this week, but it didn’t dampen the supply of cattle to the yards. Plenty of
cattle are also hitting markets in the north with mustering programs in full
swing. National cattle yardings increased 5% week on week and were around 20k
head higher than the same week last year.
We can see a few different price trends playing out at the
moment. Feeder steer prices have been on the rise, gaining 8¢ over the last
week to 332¢/kg lwt. This is the highest feeder steer prices have been since mid-April.
In contrast, females and young cattle have been on a downward trend. The
Processor cow prices this week lost almost 30¢/kg in Victoria, and 9¢ in NSW
driven by a lift in supply.
Young Cattle prices are also on a downward trend in the
East. Figure 2 shows the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator lost 12¢ over the week
to 585¢/kg cwt, which is the lowest the EYCI has been since late April.
While the recent price trends are showing some divergence,
all categories are sitting slightly higher year-on-year. WA remains the
exception. Despite a huge rally in cattle prices in the west over the last few
weeks, prices still have some way to go to reach levels of 12 months ago. The
WYCI at 585¢/kg cwt remains 80¢ lower year-on-year.
The week ahead….
Some light falls for the south, northeast and WA are on the forecast over the coming week. It’s hard to see any significant uplift in prices in the near term. Although supply might lighten a little over the coming weeks as the pressure to offload before EOFY dries up.
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In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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It’s all in the numbers
A bit of rain fell in parts of southern SA, western Vic and WA this week, but it didn’t dampen the supply of cattle to the yards. Plenty of cattle are also hitting markets in the north with mustering programs in full swing. National cattle yardings increased 5% week on week and were around 20k head higher than the same week last year.
We can see a few different price trends playing out at the moment. Feeder steer prices have been on the rise, gaining 8¢ over the last week to 332¢/kg lwt. This is the highest feeder steer prices have been since mid-April. In contrast, females and young cattle have been on a downward trend. The Processor cow prices this week lost almost 30¢/kg in Victoria, and 9¢ in NSW driven by a lift in supply.
Young Cattle prices are also on a downward trend in the East. Figure 2 shows the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator lost 12¢ over the week to 585¢/kg cwt, which is the lowest the EYCI has been since late April.
While the recent price trends are showing some divergence, all categories are sitting slightly higher year-on-year. WA remains the exception. Despite a huge rally in cattle prices in the west over the last few weeks, prices still have some way to go to reach levels of 12 months ago. The WYCI at 585¢/kg cwt remains 80¢ lower year-on-year.
The week ahead….
Some light falls for the south, northeast and WA are on the forecast over the coming week. It’s hard to see any significant uplift in prices in the near term. Although supply might lighten a little over the coming weeks as the pressure to offload before EOFY dries up.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, BOM, ABS
Categories
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Plenty of beef for the US
While beef export volumes have eased from the record highs of July, they continue to run well ahead of the average. The US market share
No steering clear of price falls
There was an inward shift in both supply and demand this week for the cattle market, resulting in lower prices across the board. Multiple saleyards
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The number of cattle being finished on grain in Australia continues to rise according to the June quarter lotfeeding survey from MLA and ALFA. Feeder
Cattle buyers are content for now
Buyers don’t have to stretch far to find volumes of cattle at the moment. While patches of the east have either received or are due
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.