The real surprise from this week’s market didn’t come from the usual reports of price or supply but the ABS release of the 2023 cattle herd estimates at 29.9 million head. The new methodology employed by the ABS has found an additional ~4 million head to the cattle herd. While unexpected, this news shouldn’t impact the direction of the market.
A bit of rain fell in parts of southern SA, western Vic and
WA this week, but it didn’t dampen the supply of cattle to the yards. Plenty of
cattle are also hitting markets in the north with mustering programs in full
swing. National cattle yardings increased 5% week on week and were around 20k
head higher than the same week last year.
We can see a few different price trends playing out at the
moment. Feeder steer prices have been on the rise, gaining 8¢ over the last
week to 332¢/kg lwt. This is the highest feeder steer prices have been since mid-April.
In contrast, females and young cattle have been on a downward trend. The
Processor cow prices this week lost almost 30¢/kg in Victoria, and 9¢ in NSW
driven by a lift in supply.
Young Cattle prices are also on a downward trend in the
East. Figure 2 shows the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator lost 12¢ over the week
to 585¢/kg cwt, which is the lowest the EYCI has been since late April.
While the recent price trends are showing some divergence,
all categories are sitting slightly higher year-on-year. WA remains the
exception. Despite a huge rally in cattle prices in the west over the last few
weeks, prices still have some way to go to reach levels of 12 months ago. The
WYCI at 585¢/kg cwt remains 80¢ lower year-on-year.
The week ahead….
Some light falls for the south, northeast and WA are on the forecast over the coming week. It’s hard to see any significant uplift in prices in the near term. Although supply might lighten a little over the coming weeks as the pressure to offload before EOFY dries up.
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It’s all in the numbers
A bit of rain fell in parts of southern SA, western Vic and WA this week, but it didn’t dampen the supply of cattle to the yards. Plenty of cattle are also hitting markets in the north with mustering programs in full swing. National cattle yardings increased 5% week on week and were around 20k head higher than the same week last year.
We can see a few different price trends playing out at the moment. Feeder steer prices have been on the rise, gaining 8¢ over the last week to 332¢/kg lwt. This is the highest feeder steer prices have been since mid-April. In contrast, females and young cattle have been on a downward trend. The Processor cow prices this week lost almost 30¢/kg in Victoria, and 9¢ in NSW driven by a lift in supply.
Young Cattle prices are also on a downward trend in the East. Figure 2 shows the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator lost 12¢ over the week to 585¢/kg cwt, which is the lowest the EYCI has been since late April.
While the recent price trends are showing some divergence, all categories are sitting slightly higher year-on-year. WA remains the exception. Despite a huge rally in cattle prices in the west over the last few weeks, prices still have some way to go to reach levels of 12 months ago. The WYCI at 585¢/kg cwt remains 80¢ lower year-on-year.
The week ahead….
Some light falls for the south, northeast and WA are on the forecast over the coming week. It’s hard to see any significant uplift in prices in the near term. Although supply might lighten a little over the coming weeks as the pressure to offload before EOFY dries up.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, BOM, ABS
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.