Despite saleyards and processors being shut for the holidays, the market continues to be thrown curveballs. The announcement of quota limits for beef imports into China being the first bit of market-moving news of the year. Even when cattle aren’t at the yards, global trade continues to impact the trade.
Australia and Brazil have both had ceilings placed on beef exports to China that are below last year’s export pace, which increases complexity around trade. Mainly, how do exporters ensure they maximise their own volumes into this valuable market, and where else can we sell the plentiful beef that will be produced? Whatever the answer to these questions is, the impact on the market will be more apparent as we approach the quota limit towards the middle of this year. Typically, all things being equal, you’d expect price to trend lower for cattle as the supply chain adapts, for now though, we are seeing the opposite as southern weaner sales kick into gear and restockers push the market higher.
Across the board, interest in southern weaners was strong, with buyers travelling far and wide to stock up on best-bred stock. Many Victorian producers are in a better spot than this time last year on the rain and pasture front, despite the recent hot conditions, and are throwing their hat in the ring as they look to get numbers back into the paddock.
New deadline quota constraints into China now means the grainfed sector doesn’t want to be patient when it comes to production. Lotfeeders were keen at the yards to get ideal stock for a quick turnaround on feed, as they look to get stock up to weight, processed and shipped in Q1 and Q2 of this year. The National Feeder Steer indicator jumped 21¢ to 472¢/kg lwt. The recent rainfall in the north and expectations of some of that rain to flow south have motivated restocker involvement aswell. The national yearling restocker steer indicator improved 37¢ to 497¢/kg lwt.
Next week
The South still needs a drink after a difficult few weeks on the weather front and indicative forecasts looks like there will be some light rainfall over the next week.
Supply was looking for shade as temperatures skyrocketed and saleyards shut the gate. Despite the lull in numbers, buyers were similarly backing off. The heat
Australia sent more beef offshore in 2025 than any other year on record, demonstrating considerable resilience against ever-variable seasonal conditions across the country. There were
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It’s never a quiet one
Next week
The South still needs a drink after a difficult few weeks on the weather front and indicative forecasts looks like there will be some light rainfall over the next week.
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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
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Buyers want beef not cattle
The cattle market was mixed this week as a cooler change (and no public holiday) saw numbers flood back to saleyards. National indicators show that
Beef outlook strong, cattle another question
A quick review of data coming out of the US comes with the conclusion that extreme global beef demand isn’t going anywhere for some time.
Buyers cool off as temperatures soar
Supply was looking for shade as temperatures skyrocketed and saleyards shut the gate. Despite the lull in numbers, buyers were similarly backing off. The heat
A big year for Aussie beef
Australia sent more beef offshore in 2025 than any other year on record, demonstrating considerable resilience against ever-variable seasonal conditions across the country. There were
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.