It’s never a quiet one

Australia and Brazil have both had ceilings placed on beef exports to China that are below last year’s export pace, which increases complexity around trade. Mainly, how do exporters ensure they maximise their own volumes into this valuable market, and where else can we sell the plentiful beef that will be produced? Whatever the answer to these questions is, the impact on the market will be more apparent as we approach the quota limit towards the middle of this year. Typically, all things being equal, you’d expect price to trend lower for cattle as the supply chain adapts, for now though, we are seeing the opposite as southern weaner sales kick into gear and restockers push the market higher.

Across the board, interest in southern weaners was strong, with buyers travelling far and wide to stock up on best-bred stock. Many Victorian producers are in a better spot than this time last year on the rain and pasture front, despite the recent hot conditions, and are throwing their hat in the ring as they look to get numbers back into the paddock.

New deadline quota constraints into China now means the grainfed sector doesn’t want to be patient when it comes to production. Lotfeeders were keen at the yards to get ideal stock for a quick turnaround on feed, as they look to get stock up to weight, processed and shipped in Q1 and Q2 of this year. The National Feeder Steer indicator jumped 21¢ to 472¢/kg lwt. The recent rainfall in the north and expectations of some of that rain to flow south have motivated restocker involvement aswell. The national yearling restocker steer indicator improved 37¢ to 497¢/kg lwt.