After a record year of beef exports in 2024, volumes have kicked off 2025 in a similar vein. Beef exports are traditionally lower in January, but with the level they have kicked off, we might be on track for yet another record.
Figure 1 shows that Australian beef exports kicked off the new year at the traditional lower level compared to the rest of the year. The holiday period slowdown in processing in late December impacts the amount of beef that can be exported, and we, therefore, have lower exports in January.
Beef exports did open higher than last year. However, beef exports have been higher year on year every month since December 2022. That is 25 consecutive months of increasing exports.
The US’s insatiable appetite for our beef continued, as they were responsible for almost all of the increased exports. The US imported 22% more beef than January 2024, taking 24.6 thousand tonnes. While this number was much lower than the peaks of late 2024, it was way above the long-term average and the highest January number since 2015.
Other major markets, being Japan, South Korea, and China, all took similar amounts of beef in January last year.
Figure 2 shows the US started 2025 as our largest market for beef and by a long way. The US took 30% of Australian beef exports in January, which is similar to the market share seen in 2024. China’s share of our beef lifted in January, hopefully, a sign of stronger competition in export markets this year.
Slaughter drives exports, and Figure 3 shows January saw one week when cattle slaughter lifted to the levels of late 2024. While cattle producers would be pleased to see 2025 slaughter capacity lifting back to the late 2024 levels, it needs to increase to see any real improvement in prices.
Looking back at 2019 in Figure 3 does give some hope that the new year can bring increased slaughter. Back then, it was a similar increase in 2018, and we were at a similar stage in the price cycle, with export prices at significant premiums to saleyard values. onditions.
What does it mean?
There is no doubt there is demand for the large quantities of beef being produced at the moment. Strong volumes and high prices are an indication of that. Higher value markets are still taking plenty of our beef, but growth appears to be more limited than in the US.
Key Points
-
Australian beef exports began 2025 strong, with January exceeding last year despite the usual seasonal dip.
-
The US continues to be the main buyer of Australian beef, with January imports up 22% from last year.
-
While slaughter has improved, further increases are key for continued export growth and better cattle prices.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: DAFF, MLA, Nutrien, Mecardo
