Lamb forecast fits with future figures

The tri-annual look at industry sentiment and plans for the future conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation had its largest response rate this time around, with about 10% of sheep producers from across the country contributing. And while sentiment – well up on 12 months ago – can change quickly, especially given the rain falling in the past week – the lamb sales question can give us some good insight into possible numbers still to come.

As a point of reference for lamb throughput, the last sheep industry projections from MLA had lamb slaughter for 2024 reaching 27.7 million head, which would be an increase of 11% on the previous year. before falling 5% to 26.3 million in 2025. According to weekly slaughter figures from the National Livestock Reporting Service, up until the week before last (latest data available), about 21.1 million had been processed – a record high figure for the year-to-date and nearly 9% more than in the same period last year. 

The intentions survey collected information throughout October and concluded the lamb flock for 2024 was 27.48 million, up 2% year-on-year. It found actual and expected lamb sales from 1 July 2024 through to 30 June 2025 were 22.4 million head, up from 21 million in 2023. Of this, producers reported they had sold 18% of the lambs, or about 4 million, from July through to October, with 36%, or 8.1 million, expected to be sold by the end of the year. The remainder, 46% or 10.2 million, would be sold in the new year. Comparatively, the October 2023 SPI reported there were 49% of lambs still to be sold in the new year (2024), equating to 10.3 million head. This reflects some of the expected decrease for lamb slaughter next year.

Producer intentions in terms of lamb flock size expands on this further. Despite 61% of producers expecting to have the same number or more lambs in 2025, the forecast lamb flock for next year is 1% lower than 2024, at 27.2 million. When this was broken down state-by-state, unsurprisingly Western Australia, which was the only state to report a negative outlook for the sheep industry, had the largest potential lamb number decrease, down a forecast 7% on 2024, or more than 300,000 head. Queensland had the largest percentage increase, up 31%, while NSW, the only other state with a forecast increase, had the biggest real figure movement other than WA, with a forecast 2% lift, or nearly 200,000 head.