Strong processor demand for new season lambs and rain falling in the southeast of the country put the lamb market in the green this week, with prices lifting across all categories despite yarding numbers also being on the up. Last week’s increase prompted an extra 11,600 sheep onto the market this week, but it didn’t put a dent in the mutton price, which held firm.
Starting with mutton, it closed out the week at 735¢/kg, right on par with the previous week. As mentioned, the yarding increased significantly, but it was still lower year-on-year for sheep in the same week. NSW led the charge, yarding 53,000 of the total 83,000 sheep eligible for the National Mutton Indicator, and averaging 766¢/kg. Forbes, NSW, had 11% of the throughput and averaged a whopping 870¢/kg, with the National Livestock Reporting Service quoting Merino ewes topping at $300/head. Sheep prices in the west fell by 6¢/kg to 638¢/kg.
Total lamb yardings were up 6% as sucker supply builds more momentum. On the processing front, despite trade lamb numbers also increasing by more than 11,000 head week-on-week, the National Trade Lamb Indicator experienced the biggest rise for the week, jumping 47¢/kg to 1139¢/kg. This price level being sustained so far in the spring means the NTLI is currently averaging 971¢/kg for the year to date, which is more than $1/kg clear of the previous high average set in 2021.
Heavy lambs also had a price rise of 23¢/kg for the week, landing pretty much in line with the trade price at 1138¢/kg. The National Heavy Lamb Indicator is now the only price guide which sits significantly above month-ago levels, operating at a 27¢/kg premium, even though heavy lamb indicator throughput is now at its highest point since August.
Nationally, restocker lambs lifted 14¢/kg to 1105¢/kg. NSW operated above the average; however, it actually lost ground week-on-week, falling 4¢/kg to 1128¢/kg. Wagga Wagga, NSW, had 20% of the national throughput and averaged 1205¢/kg for restocker lambs, with the NLRS quoting store lamb supply as up and prices down due to a lack of southern (Victorian) support. Notably, Merino lambs lifted 33¢/kg to 1013¢/kg.
Next week
Plenty of confidence in the current state of play is obvious, and this is likely to strengthen further if more rain falls in the coming week. Lamb slaughter was down week-on-week in the last week of October, but it was still well above year-ago levels and in the top five for lamb slaughter numbers this year. Despite the expectation of a later sucker season, the high turn-off in October could indicate producers were getting in while the going was good, not willing to bank on seasonal or market conditions if they held off. What lamb numbers are actually left to come will be what dictates the market for the rest of the year.
The latest ABARES outlook for livestock products has sheepmeat production dropping for the 2025–26 financial year, pushing prices higher and potentially boosting global demand even
Total sheep and lamb saleyard throughput fell this week, and so did most price indicators, as plenty of supply, proximity to holiday processor shutdowns, and
The October Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS) provides some very important information regarding the number of lambs on the ground, the type of lambs, and
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Lamb lifts despite market rush
Starting with mutton, it closed out the week at 735¢/kg, right on par with the previous week. As mentioned, the yarding increased significantly, but it was still lower year-on-year for sheep in the same week. NSW led the charge, yarding 53,000 of the total 83,000 sheep eligible for the National Mutton Indicator, and averaging 766¢/kg. Forbes, NSW, had 11% of the throughput and averaged a whopping 870¢/kg, with the National Livestock Reporting Service quoting Merino ewes topping at $300/head. Sheep prices in the west fell by 6¢/kg to 638¢/kg.
Total lamb yardings were up 6% as sucker supply builds more momentum. On the processing front, despite trade lamb numbers also increasing by more than 11,000 head week-on-week, the National Trade Lamb Indicator experienced the biggest rise for the week, jumping 47¢/kg to 1139¢/kg. This price level being sustained so far in the spring means the NTLI is currently averaging 971¢/kg for the year to date, which is more than $1/kg clear of the previous high average set in 2021.
Heavy lambs also had a price rise of 23¢/kg for the week, landing pretty much in line with the trade price at 1138¢/kg. The National Heavy Lamb Indicator is now the only price guide which sits significantly above month-ago levels, operating at a 27¢/kg premium, even though heavy lamb indicator throughput is now at its highest point since August.
Nationally, restocker lambs lifted 14¢/kg to 1105¢/kg. NSW operated above the average; however, it actually lost ground week-on-week, falling 4¢/kg to 1128¢/kg. Wagga Wagga, NSW, had 20% of the national throughput and averaged 1205¢/kg for restocker lambs, with the NLRS quoting store lamb supply as up and prices down due to a lack of southern (Victorian) support. Notably, Merino lambs lifted 33¢/kg to 1013¢/kg.
Next week
Plenty of confidence in the current state of play is obvious, and this is likely to strengthen further if more rain falls in the coming week. Lamb slaughter was down week-on-week in the last week of October, but it was still well above year-ago levels and in the top five for lamb slaughter numbers this year. Despite the expectation of a later sucker season, the high turn-off in October could indicate producers were getting in while the going was good, not willing to bank on seasonal or market conditions if they held off. What lamb numbers are actually left to come will be what dictates the market for the rest of the year.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Abundance of lambs this week doesn’t rock the boat
The 2nd largest lamb yarding in the last 2 years did not rock the boat from a price perspective, as most of the major national
Production down, but values still to rise
The latest ABARES outlook for livestock products has sheepmeat production dropping for the 2025–26 financial year, pushing prices higher and potentially boosting global demand even
Mutton market maintains momentum
Total sheep and lamb saleyard throughput fell this week, and so did most price indicators, as plenty of supply, proximity to holiday processor shutdowns, and
Survey marking numbers counter high slaughter rates
The October Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS) provides some very important information regarding the number of lambs on the ground, the type of lambs, and
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.