Lamb market kicks off autumn with mixed signals

Sheep in distance in green paddock

First week of autumn saw slight fluctuations in the value of the majority of indicators, yardings retreated, as did some of the buyer's demand according to major selling yard reports. As southern Queensland and northern NSW bunker down in preparation for cyclone Alfred, the rest of the eastern seaboard is forecasted to get some rain for next week.

The Eastern States Trade lamb indicator was up 4¢/kg for the week to close at 794¢/kg, a 1% increase on the week prior. Yardings fell away by 22%, the largest decrease of all the indicators. Major selling yards such as Wagga and Forbes had large drops in contribution to the indicator week on week. Waggas’ contribution to the indicator was back by 52%, whilst Forbes was back by 28%, this was offset by Vic saleyards, with Ballarat up 52% and Hamilton up 31%.

The Merino lamb indicator saw an increase in value for the week, rising 13% from where it closed last week to 670¢/kg. Yardings were down by 5% for the same period. Forbes topped the indicator for contribution and averaged a slight discount to the indicator. Wagga and Bendigo, however, averaged 6% and 10% premiums, helping to lift the total.

In the west, the trade lambs lost value for the week after a 26% increase in supply, applying downwards pressure on prices. The indicator dipping below the $6/kg mark to 594¢/kg and increasing the discount to the eastern states to 25%.

Initial yardings data from the MLA show a decrease of 10% overall for the first week of March to a total of 280k head, sheep were down 16% and lambs by 10%. This is following a similar trend to last year with a surge in the first few weeks before a steady decline before it picks back up again.

Slaughter data for the week prior was the same level as the week before that. Sheep slaughter levels were down 6%, slightly offset by an increase in lamb slaughter of 2%. Compared to the 5-year average for the same week, the last week of slaughter week was on week.

The week ahead….

As millions of people bunker down and brace for cyclone Alfred to hit the east coast, the storm system that comes with it is forecasted to bring rain with it to large parts of the east coast. WA is also tipped to get some showers, although not as significant as the east coast. This should support prices as demand may increase with favourable feed outlook conditions following the rain.

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Data sources: Mecardo, MLA, BOM

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