Merino sheep walking out of a shed

The sheep and lamb market continues to resist spring supply pressure, with all categories remaining historically high. Combined yardings hit their highest level since June this week as both restocker and trade lamb numbers rose significantly, offsetting a dip in sheep throughput. As producers look to capitalise on strong returns and get lambs off before summer really kicks in, saleyard reports are processors are already chasing shorn lambs to get the finish they are after, leaving the question of how supply will hold up early in the new year before current restocker lambs are turned over again.

The latest slaughter figures, from last week, rose from the week prior, but are now trending well below year-ago levels, with the lamb kill back 11 percent from the same week in 2024, and sheep down 26 percent. Meat and Livestock Australia’s weekly slaughter numbers have the combined figure about 6 percent lower year-on-year for the year-to-date, while Australian Bureau of Statistics data released yesterday shows lamb slaughter for the September quarter was at its lowest point since March 2022.

Lamb yardings, on the other hand, are headed in the other direction, surging to their highest level since June this week, and recording the highest lamb throughput for this specific week since 2018 at 13 percent above the five-year average. The sheep throughput perhaps gives the clearest picture of industry supply and confidence, down nearly 30 percent on the same time last year, and sitting at 8 percent lower than the average.

There were 10,000 fewer sheep recorded for the National Mutton Indicator, which in turn picked up just shy of 18¢ per kilogram for the week, landing on 751¢ per kilogram. Wagga Wagga, NSW, had a quarter of all eligible sheep, 18,000 head, and averaged 755¢ per kilogram, with the National Livestock Reporting Service quoting plenty of weight in the offering and a big cohort of buyers. Heavy lambs held relatively firm in price and numbers, with the national indicator closing the week at 1159¢ per kilogram, within 1¢ per kilogram of the previous week. Heavy prices are, however, now operating at the biggest premium to month-ago levels, having risen 106¢ per kilogram in four weeks.

The restocker lamb market was convincingly resilient, with an increase of more than 18,000 head through the national indicator week-on-week, but the price only dipping by 4¢ per kilogram to 1144¢ per kilogram. Trade lambs had the biggest fall for the week, losing 10¢ per kilogram to land at 1138¢ per kilogram nationally. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator actually lost more ground for the week, but still sits higher than the national price at 1143¢ per kilogram. Hamilton, Victoria, kicked into gear, offering the largest yarding of trade lambs for the week, and despite the NLRS quoting northern processors amongst the buyers, trade lambs averaged below the national price at 1115¢ per kilogram. Strong feeder and restocker competition was also noted at that sale.

The week ahead….

With lambs likely to keep up this rate of supply through to Christmas, the question will be if the demand can hold up, and so far, it is showing every sign it will. Even if processors take the foot off the pedal as we near the holiday shutdown, market confidence is pushing feeders and restockers into the forefront of bidding. Sheep supply could be one to watch – where will restocker values head for sheep if that supply keeps slipping?

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo

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