In Friday’s weekly market wrap we highlighted some east-west price differentials in the sheep and lamb market - an occurrence not entirely out of the ordinary, but perhaps worth a closer look given current supply dynamics and the transformation in the system in Western Australia.
National Livestock Reporting Service weekly east coast yarding numbers show us that year-to-date total lamb throughput has fallen by 21%, with weekly average figures down by the same percentage. Comparatively, WA lamb yardings for the year-to-date have only dipped 2% compared to the same period in 2025, and the weekly average yarding numbers so far are actually 13% higher than last year. Sheep yardings are much more closely aligned, with both WA and the east coast numbers which are about 33% lower for the YTD.
Interstate transfers can often tell us more about the state of things in the east than the west given demand is based on seasonal conditions and processor demand. According to the Department of Primary Industries in WA, interstate transfers from WA in the first quarter increased by 187% compared to the same period last year, with numbers of sheep and lambs trucked out by more than 100,000 head. And a majority of this increase has come from lambs, which made up 81% of the numbers, a year-on-year change of 244% (sheep were up 72%).
DPI figures also show first quarter WA lamb slaughter was up 2% year-on-year and 5% above the five-year-average for the January to March period, with interstate transfers 10% above the long-term average. Sheep slaughter was down 52% compared to 2025, and live ex 100%, putting total WA turn-off 22% lower than both last years, and the 10-year figure. Compared to the east coast, year-to-date lamb slaughter is back 11% year-on-year (from MLA weekly figures), while using that same data, WA lamb kill has only dropped 5%.
While technically the live sheep export trade (by sea) still has nearly two years before being phased out, it has already become almost irrelevant to the Western Australian sheep industry. Latest live sheep export numbers to May (with trade not running from June to September) show that year-to-date only about 20,000 head have left Australia, a 93% decrease year-on-year. There has only been one shipment of sheep leaving WA ports so far this year, going to Jordan in April.
What has this all meant for pricing in WA? The WA Trade Lamb Indicator has averaged 1072¢/kg this year, compared to the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator at 1172¢/kg, a differential of 9%. Over the past five years, the ESTLI has averaged 760¢/kg, compared to WA’s 608¢/kg, meaning the five-year-average has the East at a premium of 20% above the West.
It is interesting to note that in Meat and Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation’s latest Sheep Producers Intentions Survey from May, WA has had by far the biggest increase in net sentiment around the sheepmeat industry, increasing to +71. While that still sits behind the national figure of +84, it has improved by more than double what the national figure has increased by in the past 12 months. WA producers were also right on par with the national average when it came to breeding ewe flock intentions, with 38% intending to increase numbers in the next 12 months, and only 28% planning on cutting back, with the remainder unchanged.
What does it mean?
Lamb supply has shown plenty of resilience in WA so far this year, and this has no doubt been supporting shortfalls in the east. Trade lamb prices are also operating at less of a discount than they do traditionally, reinforcing current demand. This has flowed through to producer sentiment and bodes well for continued buoyant trade through the spring.
Key Points
- West Australian lamb yardings have maintained more momentum than in the east so far this year, only dipping 2% compared to 21%.
- Interstate lamb transfers from WA have surged on the back of this, up 244% on last year.
- WATLI trading at half the usual discount to the ESTLI so far this year.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, DPIRD WA, Mecardo
