Lamb weights recover in March

While export data comes out monthly, and we have Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) weekly slaughter data showing us trends, we only receive production data quarterly.  Lamb production data is important as we can divide it by official slaughter, and get an average carcase weight.

Carcase weight trends can give an insight into how producers are reacting to the market and seasonal conditions, and importantly, tell us how supply might react going forward.

Figure 1 shows lamb carcase weights recovered in March, although this was largely in line with seasonal trends.  The December quarter saw carcase weights hit a three-and-a-half-year low on the back of the dry spring, and increased exports to the Middle East.

In the March quarter average carcase weights gained 1kg to 24.4kgs per head.  Figure 1 shows that the March carcase weight was almost the same as last year, but down on 2022.  The fact that average weights were similar to 2023 when Middle East exports were still running hot, tells us that there were plenty of heavy lambs coming through to lift average weights.

Better prices in the March quarter, along with a premium in the heavy trade and heavy lamb markets encouraged supplementary feeding of lambs to maximise income.

Figure 2 shows the increase in March didn’t manage to reverse the falling trend shown by the 12-month average trend line.  Historically the June quarter sees stronger carcase weights again.  If we see this the downward trend might have been reversed.

Sheep carcase weights follow a similar trend to lamb as shown in figure 3.  The rising trend in general is likely due to heavier meat breeds replacing lighter merinos, with obvious impacts from good and bad seasons. 

While lamb carcase weights were up in March, sheep weights were down on the December level.  The downtrend of the last 3 years is seemingly steadying for sheep as well as lamb but will remain heavily reliant on seasons.