Live cattle exports for the first two months of 2025 are at their highest levels in four years, as plentiful supply keeps prices where our customers want them. All forecasts have that figure continuing to rise in the coming years, and although numbers remain a far cry from historical levels, the outlook for the sector is mainly positive, especially after some significant rain events in Queensland.
In 2024, there were 766,000 head of cattle exported from Australia, a 13% increase from the previous year and the highest number since 2021. Of these, about three-quarters went to Indonesia, with their intake of Australian cattle rising 45% for the year. December had the largest monthly total exports since October 2020, and most of the 91,000 head were sent to Indonesia.
So far this year, export numbers are also at their highest point since 2021, with the February figure more than double the same month last year – albeit still 4% below the five-year-average. Indonesia was the main destination, with China not taking any, but Mexico received their first shipment since 2016, a consignment of more than 3000 dairy heifers.
When it comes to the breakdown of cattle type, the fall in demand from China and Vietnam meant total breeder exports from Australia fell 34% in 2024, while feeders lifted 25% and slaughter stock was up 13%. Total cattle exports to China fell 33% last year, to their lowest levels since at least 2012, and their lowest market share – 7% – since 2015. For the first two months of this year, numbers are nearly 70% below the five-year average, and there are little signs of any significant uptick to come.
Meat and Livestock Australia’s recent industry projections have cattle exports lifting to 803,000 head this year, and to be 25% above last year’s figure by 2027. Indonesia is key to this, with MLA citing supply gaps in their domestic herd due to disease as well as a reduction in available Indian buffalo meat permits, as to why they will continue to look to Australia to fill feeder and slaughter demand. Similarly, ABARES March outlook forecasts live cattle numbers in the 2024-25 year to be 23% stronger, reaching 817,000 head, lifting a further 10% in 2025-26, as demand for feeder and slaughter cattle climbs in Indonesia, and prices remain below the 10-year-average.
What does it mean?
All signs are pointing in the right direction for the live cattle export sector to continue to strengthen this year, as volumes climb, and agents report plenty of action in regard to orders filling quickly. Feeder export steers out of the NT are currently quoted at $3.45, which is less than 10¢/kg less than the national price indicator. China and Vietnam are unlikely to return to their previous demand levels in this market, but this is being countered by continued interest from Indonesia, and new market opportunities such as the Philippines, up 30% for the year to date.
Key Points
- Total cattle exports lifted 13% year-on-year in 2024 and are forecast to continue to increase.
- This year has started strongly without the permit delays from key market Indonesia, up 10,000 year-on-year for the first two months.
- The sector remains price sensitive, with current below-average returns boosting demand.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia: ABARES
