For the second consecutive year, the market is seeing week-to-week volatility in new season lamb quality, weight, and numbers, which is driving see-sawing lamb pricing at the yards. This week, buyers were keen to capitalise on the improved quality of this week's offering, which boosted lamb indicators higher.
Per MLA Saleyard reports, Wagga saw strong competition from a full buying panel as quality showed significant improvement. Fair quality, but a drop in numbers pushed the market higher in Forbes. In Bendigo, processor buyers were chasing numbers after rainfall impacted last week’s yarding. This week’s yarding was impacted by rainfall in Dubbo, so supply pressure added to buyers’ motivation. Naracoorte saw easing interest in older lambs, but buyers were keen on the new season lambs present. Katanning saw numbers increase and indicators track backwards for lambs, but interest remained for mutton.
The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) rose 42¢ to 1200¢/kg cwt. Light and Merino lamb indicators saw 60¢+ increases to 1091¢/kg cwt (light lambs) and 1076¢/kg cwt (Merino lambs). The national mutton indicator jumped higher again this week, improving 22¢ to 767¢/kg cwt.
Last week, combined lamb and sheep slaughter per the NLRS was 492,339 head, as supply continues to evade the processors. The first half of this year combined slaughter averaged 660k head per week, so last week’s slaughter result is now 25% lower than the weekly average for the beginning of the year.
Traditionally, saleyard lamb numbers ramp up meaningfully in October, and indications from the yards suggest that this will be the earliest we can see big lamb numbers in trade condition. Until then, volatility in pricing will be expected as the highly variable weights of new season lambs continue to throw a spanner in the works.
Next week
Supply lagging into spring will keep processors nimble to secure numbers, but the level of upward momentum, given the cost for export buyers at the other end, is approaching the limit.
Trying to decipher US lamb prices is hard for someone with experience in market analysis. After trawling through United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) website
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Lift in quality pushes ESTLI back to $12
Per MLA Saleyard reports, Wagga saw strong competition from a full buying panel as quality showed significant improvement. Fair quality, but a drop in numbers pushed the market higher in Forbes. In Bendigo, processor buyers were chasing numbers after rainfall impacted last week’s yarding. This week’s yarding was impacted by rainfall in Dubbo, so supply pressure added to buyers’ motivation. Naracoorte saw easing interest in older lambs, but buyers were keen on the new season lambs present. Katanning saw numbers increase and indicators track backwards for lambs, but interest remained for mutton.
The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) rose 42¢ to 1200¢/kg cwt. Light and Merino lamb indicators saw 60¢+ increases to 1091¢/kg cwt (light lambs) and 1076¢/kg cwt (Merino lambs). The national mutton indicator jumped higher again this week, improving 22¢ to 767¢/kg cwt.
Last week, combined lamb and sheep slaughter per the NLRS was 492,339 head, as supply continues to evade the processors. The first half of this year combined slaughter averaged 660k head per week, so last week’s slaughter result is now 25% lower than the weekly average for the beginning of the year.
Traditionally, saleyard lamb numbers ramp up meaningfully in October, and indications from the yards suggest that this will be the earliest we can see big lamb numbers in trade condition. Until then, volatility in pricing will be expected as the highly variable weights of new season lambs continue to throw a spanner in the works.
Next week
Supply lagging into spring will keep processors nimble to secure numbers, but the level of upward momentum, given the cost for export buyers at the other end, is approaching the limit.
Have any questions or comments?
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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
Can extreme US lamb price flow here?
Trying to decipher US lamb prices is hard for someone with experience in market analysis. After trawling through United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) website
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Back to the paddock demand lifts light lambs
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.