Return to a normal sale week but the rainfall and economic conditions have changed. Light lambs continue to track higher to both processors and restockers.
It was a mixed week for saleyard indicators. The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) dropped 11¢ to 792¢/kg cwt despite flat supply. Lamb indicators all averaged single digit gains or losses this week, but the light lamb indicators improved 23¢ this week to 1137¢/kg cwt. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lost 7¢ to 1165¢/kg cwt /kg cwt.
Supply continues to allude the market and rain further clouds the equations for how many lambs we can expect in the next few months. Lamb yarding’s for the year to date is 10% lower than this time last year, which continues to limit upwards momentum in production and slaughter. Numbers this week were slightly higher NLRS slaughter data saw a big dip in lamb slaughter volumes last week, primarily driven by Labour Day holiday in Victoria. Sheep slaughter tracked flat.
Demand for lighter lambs is beginning to ramp up across the board per MLA saleyard reports. Lambs were in high demand from both restockers and feeders in Wagga, with processors more conservative. Bendigo benefitted from a lengthy break since the big rainfall event and prices jumped higher. Ballarat saw strong demand, particularly on the mutton front where some pens of heavy weight turn off sheep sold for 900c/kg.
Lamb export pace into the US is down year on year. We know volumes are down which is contributing to lower production and exports overall but as discussed by Jamie-Lee Oldfield on Mecardo this week, we could be approaching the limits of US importers willingness to pay (Read more here). Steiner has reported consumers substituting towards cheaper cuts and the combination of the tariff, an appreciating Aussie dollar impacting prices for US importers. Heavy lambs are 32% more expensive per kilo at the yards than the last time the exchange rate was at 70¢.
The week ahead….
Supply remains tight which puts upward pressure on prices, but current economic conditions are also putting some downward pressure on the retail and wholesale end of the supply chain. Feeder demand should remain strong with winter price premiums on the horizon.
Australian sheep flock estimates for the next three years are now more closely reflecting industry insights and assumptions after consecutive poor seasonal conditions in many
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Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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Light lambs higher again
It was a mixed week for saleyard indicators. The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) dropped 11¢ to 792¢/kg cwt despite flat supply. Lamb indicators all averaged single digit gains or losses this week, but the light lamb indicators improved 23¢ this week to 1137¢/kg cwt. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lost 7¢ to 1165¢/kg cwt /kg cwt.
Supply continues to allude the market and rain further clouds the equations for how many lambs we can expect in the next few months. Lamb yarding’s for the year to date is 10% lower than this time last year, which continues to limit upwards momentum in production and slaughter. Numbers this week were slightly higher NLRS slaughter data saw a big dip in lamb slaughter volumes last week, primarily driven by Labour Day holiday in Victoria. Sheep slaughter tracked flat.
Demand for lighter lambs is beginning to ramp up across the board per MLA saleyard reports. Lambs were in high demand from both restockers and feeders in Wagga, with processors more conservative. Bendigo benefitted from a lengthy break since the big rainfall event and prices jumped higher. Ballarat saw strong demand, particularly on the mutton front where some pens of heavy weight turn off sheep sold for 900c/kg.
Lamb export pace into the US is down year on year. We know volumes are down which is contributing to lower production and exports overall but as discussed by Jamie-Lee Oldfield on Mecardo this week, we could be approaching the limits of US importers willingness to pay (Read more here). Steiner has reported consumers substituting towards cheaper cuts and the combination of the tariff, an appreciating Aussie dollar impacting prices for US importers. Heavy lambs are 32% more expensive per kilo at the yards than the last time the exchange rate was at 70¢.
The week ahead….
Supply remains tight which puts upward pressure on prices, but current economic conditions are also putting some downward pressure on the retail and wholesale end of the supply chain. Feeder demand should remain strong with winter price premiums on the horizon.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Mecardo, MLA
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.