Supply crept higher this week to 392k head for lamb and sheep through to the yards, and prices retracted as harvest in the south and heat in the north impact the market.
New season lamb numbers are still 7% lower YoY for the spring flush, retracting again this week (Figure 2). Quality and weight of lambs continue to be volatile week to week, and the decline in numbers and a higher proportion of lighter lambs resulted in declining prices this week.
Mutton indicators were the sole improvers this week, up 4c to 752c/kg cwt. The rest of the national saleyard indicators averaged declines ranging from 25 to 50c/kg. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) dropped 51c to 1092c/kg cwt.
MLA saleyard reports detail a lot of variability amongst the East Coast sale centres. Wagga saw a big decline in numbers, lighter lambs dominated yarding but were not in strong demand from buyers assembled. Supply was completely different in Hamilton, which saw a big boost to lamb throughput with excellent new season lambs on offer, providing breathing room for the buyers who were active. Ballarat saw less restocking activity and picky buying for lighter lambs as trade weights remained over $10/kg cwt as lighter lambs pushed below that threshold at times. Naracoorte saw numbers and quality increase, but the market eased slightly across the board.
Confidence was higher, but lamb markings were lower in 2025, according to the MLA AWI Sheep Producer Intentions Survey latest iteration in October. As broken down by Jamie Lee Oldfield in Mecardo this week, supply and the lower lamb markings this year will result in fewer lambs being sold in January and June 2026 compared to last. (read more here).
The week ahead….
Slaughter is still lagging compared to last year, but either way, the peak season is upon us. Restocking demand also eased this week as the heat and harvest interrupted the best back to the paddock intentions.
Processors will likely dominate the next few weeks so if the lambs that come are lighter, competition will likely rise for the heavy stock. If the cavalry has arrived and majority of lambs are at the top end of trade condition, then price pressure may continue.
Australian sheep flock estimates for the next three years are now more closely reflecting industry insights and assumptions after consecutive poor seasonal conditions in many
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Lighter lambs dominate supply as prices decline
New season lamb numbers are still 7% lower YoY for the spring flush, retracting again this week (Figure 2). Quality and weight of lambs continue to be volatile week to week, and the decline in numbers and a higher proportion of lighter lambs resulted in declining prices this week.
Mutton indicators were the sole improvers this week, up 4c to 752c/kg cwt. The rest of the national saleyard indicators averaged declines ranging from 25 to 50c/kg. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) dropped 51c to 1092c/kg cwt.
MLA saleyard reports detail a lot of variability amongst the East Coast sale centres. Wagga saw a big decline in numbers, lighter lambs dominated yarding but were not in strong demand from buyers assembled. Supply was completely different in Hamilton, which saw a big boost to lamb throughput with excellent new season lambs on offer, providing breathing room for the buyers who were active. Ballarat saw less restocking activity and picky buying for lighter lambs as trade weights remained over $10/kg cwt as lighter lambs pushed below that threshold at times. Naracoorte saw numbers and quality increase, but the market eased slightly across the board.
Confidence was higher, but lamb markings were lower in 2025, according to the MLA AWI Sheep Producer Intentions Survey latest iteration in October. As broken down by Jamie Lee Oldfield in Mecardo this week, supply and the lower lamb markings this year will result in fewer lambs being sold in January and June 2026 compared to last. (read more here).
The week ahead….
Slaughter is still lagging compared to last year, but either way, the peak season is upon us. Restocking demand also eased this week as the heat and harvest interrupted the best back to the paddock intentions.
Processors will likely dominate the next few weeks so if the lambs that come are lighter, competition will likely rise for the heavy stock. If the cavalry has arrived and majority of lambs are at the top end of trade condition, then price pressure may continue.
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Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.