Australia’s live cattle export numbers lifted significantly in July but remain subdued for the year-to-date compared to the five-year-average. More competition for lower supply and strong prices has impacted some of the throughput. The trade has also been impacted by the purchasing power of the Indonesian currency, and that market’s input costs and industry regulations.
There were 62,752 head of cattle exported from Australia in July, which was 38% more than the previous month, and the second highest monthly total this year so far. However, it still came in under the five-year-average for the month, with only one July in the past decade recording a lower total. April has been the only month so far in 2026 which has sat above the average and year-to-date, with 25% less cattle have headed offshore than for the same period in 2025.
In fact, for the January to July period, it is the lowest number of cattle exported since the 2011 ban, coming in just below the numbers recorded in 2022 when Australia was in a herd rebuild with restricted supply and the year-end total was at decade-long low. Why is this the case? To start with, the industry’s reliance on Indonesia as a primary market has increased even further this year, with that country alone currently taking up 80% of the market share. Last year that was at 74%, and the 10-year-average is 51%.
Indonesian lot feeders – a primary market for Australian cattle – have been battling significant hurdles this year, including their local currency. The Indonesian Rupiah (which is converted to US dollars for Australian cattle trades) is now sitting lower against the US dollar than it was during the 1998 Asian financial crisis. They are also still restricted by government regulations which limit the price that finished cattle can be sold into the Indonesian market.
However, numbers to Indonesia are only down 14% year-on-year so far in 2026, with a significant uptick in July to well above the five-year figure – meaning that Indonesia isn’t the only reason for the decrease in live cattle exports this year. Trade with Vietnam has all but disappeared, with less than 5000 head in just two shipments sent there this year. Comparatively, just two years ago that country made up 15% of the market share and is now down to less than 2%.
Domestic supply is also playing a role. While exact pricing data is difficult to extract, we can say fairly confidently that the live feeder steer price excluding Darwin has been sitting at 400c/kg or higher for the year-so-far, compared to prices just either side of 350c/kg for the same period last year. While this is reflective of domestic pricing – the Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator has averaged 22% less so far this year compared to the same period in 2025 – it has also caused more demand coming from feedlots and backgrounders in the eastern states on the back of overall lower numbers.
What does it mean?
Strong export numbers in July is a move in the right direction, and current quotes for Northern Territory feeder steers are at 380c/kg, which should also support the trade. The domestic market is clearly handling the supply well and should continue to do so unless seasonal conditions deteriorate dramatically. We also have some of the biggest live export months still ahead of us as Indonesia begins to put cattle on feed to prepare for next year’s religious festivals.
Key Points
- Live cattle exports have fallen significantly for the year-to-date as both domestic and international factors impact trade.
- Numbers rebounded in July, likely on the back of lower prices, but remained below the five-year figure.
- Industry reliance on Indonesia has risen even further, with that destination taking 80% of the market share so far in 2026.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, DAFF, DAWE, ABS, Mecardo
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