Live sheep export numbers have dropped considerably since the Australian government announced they’d be phased out by 2028. Last year marked the lowest number of sheep exported from Australia in at least in the last 35 years, and likely since the modern trade kicked off. This year has started off just as quiet, despite Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) latest industry projections forecasting a year-on-year lift for 2025.
Looking back at 2024 first, just shy of 433,000 head of sheep were sent offshore, which was 33% less than the year before and 41% below the five-year average. Due to the moratorium on live sheep exports during the northern hemisphere summer, which started in 2019, longer-term averages aren’t directly comparable. In 2025, for the year to February (the latest data available), live sheep exports are down 84% on 2024 and 88% below the five-year average for the period.
Jordan was the biggest market for Australian live sheep last year, growing to 30% of the trade’s business, up from 16% the year prior. It was their biggest intake since 2020 and 32% higher than the five-year average. They’ve also been the only significant market this year, taking about 15,700 head of the 18,200 head exported in January and February—but this was still 11% down on last year. Kuwait was the other major market in 2024, with more than a quarter of the market share; however, that figure itself dropped considerably year-on-year, and they took less than half the number of sheep compared to the previous year.
Sheep flock numbers grew to 79 million head in Australia last year, and sheep slaughter hit its highest volume since 2006. Flock numbers are expected to fall by more than 7% this year, according to MLA, with slaughter also decreasing by nearly 2 million head. Live export numbers are forecast to increase this year to 540,000 head, a rise of about 20%, and continue to climb through to 2027, reaching 39% higher than last year’s levels.
Another factor in supply for live export is interstate transfers from WA—where the live sheep export trade is based—through to the eastern states. In 2019–20 and 2020–21, when post-drought restocking was underway, interstate transfers were higher than live sheep exports for the first time in at least the past decade. Live exports overtook interstate transfers again in 2021–22 and 2022–23, which are the last full-year figures we have available. However, preliminary figures for 2023–24 (ending March 2024) show nearly 465,000 head sent to the east, which was more than the full-year 2024 live sheep exports.
What does it mean?
While the impact of the end of live sheep exports come 2028 has been widely discussed, clearly trade has already diminished considerably on the back of its planned end. An unavailability of vessels due to maintenance and repair, as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, are some of the reasons being touted as affecting the trade. But the other – that both Australian producers and the markets that import their sheep are already starting to turn to other avenues – could see much of the sheep live export sector disappear well before it is officially cut-off. The coming months will be telling.
Key Points
- Live sheep exports fell by 33% in 2024 to their lowest levels in recent records after the announcement of the phase-out of industry by 2028.
- Numbers for the first two months of the year at 88% below the five-year average, with only 18,205 sheep exported.
- Industry projections have export numbers rising each year out to 2027, landing nearly 40% above last year’s levels.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia: ABARES
