The cattle lotfeeding sector has been experiencing huge growth over the last few years. The September quarter saw growth in cattle on feed (COF) numbers steady, but some of the numbers suggest some challenges might be on the horizon.
In 2023 and 2024 the growth in the national herd has been matched by
growth in the lotfeeding sector. It
seems a little counter-intuitive, with ‘Grain Fed’ beef not as much of a
selling point these days, compared to ‘Grass-fed’. However, export markets are demanding beef,
and grain feeding is a more time-effective and reliable way of producing a consistent
supply.
Figure 1 shows the total number of cattle on feed at the end of September
was largely steady on the June quarter.
However, cattle on feed numbers have grown 13.2% on last year, and a new
record was set at 1.424 million head.
Marketing of grainfed cattle wasn’t quite a record, sitting just under
March 2020. However, the 2020 number was
a large drawdown of cattle, this time marketings were matched by
placements. This suggests that the
strong marketings weren’t from a margin-driven drawdown but were in response to
stronger demand for beef.
The growth in the cattle herd over the last few years has seen lotfeeders
manage to keep numbers up, with placements setting a new record, surpassing the
March 2022 number. Those selling feeders
will know that feeder prices we not all that strong in the September quarter,
which would have encouraged strong placements.
Figure 2 shows average slaughter weights for Australian cattle. It’s a little surprising, with such a strong
grainfed cattle supply, to see slaughter weights sitting at 308kgs/head in
September, well below record levels.
Figure 3 explains the lower slaughter weights. The increase in grainfed slaughter has been
matched by grassfed slaughter, which includes a lot of cows, which are lighter
than most grainfed cattle.
What does it mean?
The lotfeeding booms might be a case of ‘making hay while the sun shines’, or in this case feeding a lot of cattle while feeders are available. The shift into herd liquidation will start to bite into feeder supply next year, so it’s hard to see growth continue in the lotfeeding sector. This is positive for feeder prices.
Have any questions or comments?
Key Points
- Record numbers of cattle were on feed at the end of September.
- Placements matched marketings, indicating strong demand for grainfed beef.
- Herd liquidation will pose some challenges for lotfeeders in the coming year.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ALFA, ABS, Mecardo