Cattle in feedlot

The cattle lotfeeding sector has been experiencing huge growth over the last few years. The September quarter saw growth in cattle on feed (COF) numbers steady, but some of the numbers suggest some challenges might be on the horizon.

In 2023 and 2024 the growth in the national herd has been matched by growth in the lotfeeding sector.  It seems a little counter-intuitive, with ‘Grain Fed’ beef not as much of a selling point these days, compared to ‘Grass-fed’.  However, export markets are demanding beef, and grain feeding is a more time-effective and reliable way of producing a consistent supply.

Figure 1 shows the total number of cattle on feed at the end of September was largely steady on the June quarter.  However, cattle on feed numbers have grown 13.2% on last year, and a new record was set at 1.424 million head.

Marketing of grainfed cattle wasn’t quite a record, sitting just under March 2020.  However, the 2020 number was a large drawdown of cattle, this time marketings were matched by placements.  This suggests that the strong marketings weren’t from a margin-driven drawdown but were in response to stronger demand for beef.

The growth in the cattle herd over the last few years has seen lotfeeders manage to keep numbers up, with placements setting a new record, surpassing the March 2022 number.  Those selling feeders will know that feeder prices we not all that strong in the September quarter, which would have encouraged strong placements.   

Figure 2 shows average slaughter weights for Australian cattle.  It’s a little surprising, with such a strong grainfed cattle supply, to see slaughter weights sitting at 308kgs/head in September, well below record levels. 

Figure 3 explains the lower slaughter weights.  The increase in grainfed slaughter has been matched by grassfed slaughter, which includes a lot of cows, which are lighter than most grainfed cattle. 

What does it mean?

The lotfeeding booms might be a case of ‘making hay while the sun shines’, or in this case feeding a lot of cattle while feeders are available. The shift into herd liquidation will start to bite into feeder supply next year, so it’s hard to see growth continue in the lotfeeding sector. This is positive for feeder prices.

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Key Points

  • Record numbers of cattle were on feed at the end of September.
  • Placements matched marketings, indicating strong demand for grainfed beef.
  • Herd liquidation will pose some challenges for lotfeeders in the coming year.

Click on figure to expand

Click on figure to expand

Click on figure to expand

Data sources: MLA, ALFA, ABS, Mecardo

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