Market moves focus as we wait for the weather

cattle_006

With substantial rainfall on the radar and the holiday season right around the corner, the focus of the cattle market has swung away from finished cattle and towards feeders and restockers. Slaughter numbers are still very strong, but yardings backed off a bit week-on-week as some producers no doubt thought they’d wait a week to see what the weather would do.

Restocker steers have fared the best over the past week, lifting more than 7¢/kg to 374¢/kg live weight, despite throughput for this category increasing by more than 1000 head. This puts them at nearly 25¢/kg stronger than a month ago. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator also picked up, lifting to 637¢/kg carcass weight. Historically, however, it hasn’t seen the surge that is common at this time of year, with the five-year and 10-year-average price for EYCI both hitting their highest point for the year in this corresponding week. The EYCI is currently trading at 8% lower than its 2024 peak and is 20% behind the five-year price.

The national feeder steer price was up 5¢/kg this morning, to 345¢/kg, while the jump was bigger for the Argus Australian northern cattle feeder steer price, which lifted 11¢/kg to 379¢/kg. While Argus put this down to forecast rain impacting supply, Dalby, Queensland, still had the largest throughput of all yards in the national feeder equation, closely followed by Wagga Wagga, NSW. Dalby averaged 379¢/kg, in line with the northern price gauge, however, Wagga was well behind the national average at 329¢/kg. This was despite the NLRS reporting an influx of northern buyers attending the sale after recent rain, and well-bred feeder stock selling well.

Slaughter-ready cattle – heavy steers and processor cows – felt slight downward pressure, with some NLRS reports pointing to a lack of quality influencing buying. Heavy steers were only just below last week at 322¢/kg, but cows were back to 261¢/kg, the lowest point for that indicator since July.

Total slaughter numbers last week once again climbed to their highest level for the year so far, at 145,159 head according to the National Livestock Reporting Service. This figure was close to 26% above the five-year average for the corresponding week, and about 16% higher than the same time last year. We have to go back to January 2020, to find a week with higher slaughter numbers. Supporting this is the US imported beef price, the 90CL, which also lifted again last week, to 973¢/kg. 

Next week

Rain glorious rain will dictate market conditions in the coming week, whether it eventuates or not. If some of the large falls are predicted to come about, it will not only influence restocker demand but also possibly throughput if it hampers producers’ attempts to get stock to market – and their desire to turn them off of course. There are parts of the country in the south where the rain has come too late, but it could encourage them to turn off weaners early if the northern demand continues to ramp up.

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Data sources: Meat and Livestock Australia; Argus Meat & Livestock, Mecardo

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