Market steady as the south patiently waits it’s turn for a drink

Drought land and fence

Prices tracked sideways as the trade waits in anticipation of some rainfall to reach the dry southern cattle regions.

Indicative NLRS yardings early Friday has supply 5% lower week on week but the drop in numbers likely wasn’t the driver for price this week.  With slaughter demand continuing to hover at the current cycle heights it’s clear that processors are focussed on volume.  The remaining ingredient for price upside to finish summer and start autumn with a bang is rainfall assisting the restockers.

All national indicators saw single digit improvement this week, restocker heifers improved 12c to 407c/kg lwt. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) tracked sideways to 858c/kg cwt. Saleyard reports cited relatively calm reactions given some rain in the north.  Export buyers in Dalby and Roma sat back a bit whilst buyers in Wagga were willing to send cattle north and south.

On Mecardo this week, Jamie Lee Oldfield breaks down government slaughter data and has a look at the supply platform ahead for beef productivity in Australia (read more here). 2025 total cattle slaughter increased to 26% above the average and was 12% higher than the previous year reaching 50 years high. At the same time we reached this volume achievement, gross value also improved dramatically with the December quarter in 2025 almost double as valuable as the December 2023 quarter. It’s been the good ole days but the platform for consistent production looks set in the medium term. Queensland’s total slaughter is only just catching back up to where it trended for most of the 2000s, meaning there is precedence for it to remain at those levels for the medium term.

The key will be ensuring consistent throughput and avoiding a rush of supply to the yards, which rainfall at the producer end should assist with.

The week ahead….

Rainfall reaction will give a clear indication if restockers in the south are ready to go in the short term. Numbers should be higher next week, which could take some steam out of the price upside. A big response might push stock out in the next fortnight that were scheduled to come out much later.  

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Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Bloomberg

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