Merino sheep walking out of a shed

Lambs continue to reclaim the saleyards, with mutton prices remain the beneficiary. With the Easter and the Anzac Day breaks approaching, the top end trade lambs continue to support pricing as the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) improved 7¢ to 801¢/kg cwt.

National Trade lamb indicator rose 9¢ to 795¢/kg cwt with saleyard reports citing strong bids for store weights across Ballarat, Wagga and Hamilton. The National Mutton Indicator tracked sideways for eligible throughput (66K head) but improved 33¢ to 416¢/kg cwt.

Some rainfall reached Western Victoria and Central NSW sheep regions got a great drink. More rain down south is required but producer to producer trade at the saleyards did increase this week (51% increase Week on week in restocker indicator head count) with plenty of lambs heading back to the paddock.

Merino lambs have been steadily improving, with the National Merino Lamb Indicator rising 97¢ over the past month. The Merino lamb discount to the ESTLI sits at 125¢/kg cwt, a gap that typically narrows heading into winter. Recent gains in the wool market may encourage some producers to seek value in Merino lambs, especially as processors are expected to continue prioritizing heavier stock

This week MLA released the 2025 Sheep Industry projections and Angus brown took a deep dive into the numbers this week on Mecardo to figure out what it means for sheep producers and the supply chain (read more here). The Projections forecast a smaller flock (73.2 million in 2025, a 7% decline), and tighter sheep and lamb supply for slaughter heading into 2026, which, assuming average seasonal conditions, will typically lead to support for both sheep and lamb prices.

The week ahead….

Volume is key for processors right now, and rainfall in regions that have reliably turned off sheep may drive the chase for heavier weights

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo and BOM

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