Australia’s sheepmeat exports have been on the rise this year, flowing on from the record high lamb slaughter levels. Both lamb and mutton volumes are well above year ago and five-year-average levels for the year-to-May, as the US and the Middle East soak up our extra supply. China has been Australia’s biggest mutton market and one of the largest for lamb but has lost market share this year with May’s volumes dropping below year-ago levels.
Lamb exports are 25% higher year-on-year
for the January to May period, sitting just shy of 155,000 tonnes. This is also
about a quarter higher than the five-year average for those five months, and
lamb exports for the month of May were more than 10,000 tonnes higher
year-on-year. At 36,703 tonnes, this was the biggest volume of lamb to be
exported in any single month on record and surpassed the previous record by
about 5000 tonnes.
So where is it going? The US has increased
its intake, taking an extra 35% in volume for the first five months of 2024. However,
its market share still sits at 23%, which is above 2023, but still below the
peaks of 2021-22 when it sat at 26%. The Middle East, on the other hand, has
imported more than double the volume of Australian lamb for the year-to-date
than it did last year, also 50% more than the average for that period. Its
market share of Australian lamb exports has lifted from 20% last year to 27%
for this year so far.
Mutton exports haven’t increased as rapidly
year-on-year, but still sit 14% above year-ago levels for January to May. And
in comparison to lamb, it is actually further ahead of the average, at 33% more
than the five-year-trend. It looks like the month of May was also a record for
mutton, with 21,644 tonnes sent offshore, just a few tonnes above the previous single-month
high set in March of last year. Again the Middle East is a demand driver,
lifting their market share from 17% at the end of last year to be at 30% so far
in 2024. The long-term average market share percentage for the region is 23%.
Volumes have lifted 55% year-on-year to the area.
China, on the other hand, has lost
traction, and its position as Australia’s largest mutton market by 1%, with 29%
of the share and importing 33% less for the first five months of the year.
China’s share of lamb exports has also fallen this year, by about 6%, while
their volume is down roughly the same.
What does it mean?
Export demand is proving it can somewhat keep pace with Australia’s record slaughter levels, with the Middle East playing an increasingly important role as its economies recover faster than some other parts of the world. The US also continues to gain momentum, with lamb volumes headed there lifting for seven consecutive months. With plenty of destinations available for sheepmeat, it will support current processing levels and help protect the domestic farmgate price from large supply.
Key Points
- Lamb export volumes keep rising and are tracking 25% higher than 2023 for the first five months of the year.
- Mutton exports are also very strong, nearly the five-year average for the month of May.
- Demand being led by the US and the Middle East, as China volumes drift downward.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
