Lamb exports didn’t miss a beat in March, demonstrating demand is - for now at least - still countering strong domestic pricing and global unrest. Volumes were slightly below the record tonnages of the previous two years, but still historically high and kept year-to-date totals fairly on-par. Mutton exports, however, are starting to feel the pinch of Australian sheep supply and diminished trade with major markets. This has brought total sheep meat exports well down for the year so far.
Mutton exports fell to their lowest monthly total since July 2022 in March and haven’t been lower for the month of March since 2012. Year-on-year for March mutton was back 46%, and it was 25% below the five-year-average. And while sheep meat trade to the Middle East has fallen significantly, it was actually lower mutton volumes headed to China which made up much of the lower trade in March. China took 57% less mutton year-on-year for the month of March, bringing their year-to-date mutton intake 59% lower compared to the same time last year, and about the same percentage below the five-year-average for the quarter one. China’s market share of Australian mutton is currently 22%, the lowest it has been in a decade. The high price of sheep domestically could be starting to impact demand in this market.
Moving to lamb and given the record highs of the previous two years, volumes are being maintained much better. Lamb exports were only 9% lower year-on-year for March, bringing the year-to-date figure back by only 5%, and leaving both the year so far and the month of March volumes above the five-year-average. This is however the trade which is feeling the impact of the turmoil in the Middle East, as volumes and market share dropping markedly. There hasn’t been less Australian lamb sent to the Middle East in March since pre-2011, and it was back in 2021 since any monthly total has been lower. The UAE, for example, is traditionally one of Australia’s top five singular country trading partners, and it took 66% less lamb in March.
We are still two years away from the total disbanding of live sheep exports from Australia, but trade with the traditional key market has all but disappeared so far this year. We only have two months of live sheep export data available so far in 2026, but numbers in that period are down 93% compared to the January-February period last year, and by far the lowest they have been since records began. Less than 200 sheep left Australian shores in January, with the February total of 4271 head 75% lower year-on-year. Meat & Livestock Australia has forecast live sheep exports to drop by 35% in 2026, to 120,000 head, but with war in the middle east likely to impact the next few months before the northern hemisphere summer moratorium kicks in, even that historically low figure will be out of reach.
What does it mean?
The resilience of lamb exports in the face of diminished trade with the Middle East bodes well for the industry and sustainability of current returns – in the short term at least. Nearly all other major markets took more lamb in March than the previous year, even China, which was up 16%. What we didn’t have space to look at was how the falling mutton volumes compare to the drop in domestic mutton slaughter, but with the century-low flock numbers forecast, it will likely be domestic demand which drives that market for the time being.
Key Points
- Meagre March Mutton exports bring year-to-date sheep meat exports down 18%.
- Lamb export volumes remain resilient, still sitting above the five-year-average.
- Middle East market share of Australian sheep meat exports has fallen by about 17% since the start of the year.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, DAFF, DAWE, Mecardo
