Middle east demand meets australian supply

Sheep flock

It was another record year for Australian sheepmeat exports, despite volumes lagging year-ago levels in the latter half of 2024. Both lamb and mutton finished the year at an all-time high, up 10% and 22% respectively from last year, which was also the previous record for both, and meant Australia exported more sheepmeat in a year than any country on record. Australia boasted ample supply in 2024, and demand has also been on the rise - so can we do it again in 2025?

Figures first – lamb export volumes finished the year at just shy of 360,000 tonnes, 21% more than the five-year average. All this growth happened in the first half of the year, with monthly export totals falling to below year-ago levels from August through to year’s end. The US market share grew by about 3% to be Australia’s largest lamb customer in 2024 with volumes up by 28% year-on-year, while China’s market share lost 1%, and despite increasing from the previous year, was still 16% down from the five-year average.

The Middle East made perhaps the biggest moves in 2024, and has become Australia’s largest regional destination for sheepmeat, according to the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. With 27% of Australia’s lamb market share last year, volumes to the Middle East were 33% higher than the previous record set in 2018 and 52% stronger year-on-year. Mutton export volumes to the region were up 47% year-on-year, and their market share increased by 9%. Total mutton tonnes to the Middle East in 2024 were 66,946 tonnes, and we have to go back to 2009 to find a year when they were over 50,000 tonnes.

Other mutton markets of note again included the US, which was 6% above the five-year average volume and our third largest market, but not in the record territory set back in 2021. Their market share of Australia’s mutton has just about halved in that time. China remained the biggest customer for mutton, albeit with 10% less market share, and while volumes were down from last year’s record highs, they still sat at 27% above the five-year average.

What does it mean?

Looking ahead, DAFF expects the 2024-25 fiscal year to follow suit, also reaching a record level, exceeding the previous year by 4%, citing rising incomes in key markets. The Middle East, as highlighted above, and Southeast Asia continue to drive demand. Meat & Livestock Australia forecasts continued growth in mutton exports for 2025. However, their forecast for this year significantly underestimated actual volumes, falling short by 44,000 tonnes.

Lamb exports also fell short of their 2024 prediction by approximately 11,000 tonnes, and they predict a decline in lamb exports this year. This is a direct reflection of the slaughter outlook, with mutton expected to be up and lamb down in 2025, as the flock moves further through the current cycle of sheep turnoff.

On the demand side, consumer confidence has historically remained low across many key economies, yet Australian sheepmeat exports have remained unaffected. The global economy is projected to maintain its current strength in 2025, but the Middle East and Central Asia are the only regions within the developing economies sector with a forecast GDP growth- watch this space.

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Key Points

  • Australia exported more sheepmeat in 2024 than any country in any single year on record, with volumes rising 15% year-on-year
  • Lamb exports finished last year 10% higher, driven by large volumes in the first half of the year and the Middle East nearly doubling their intake.
  • The Middle East also significantly boosted mutton exports, picking up most of the 10% market share lost by China, but China remained Australia’s largest mutton market.

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Click on figure to expand

Data sources: MLA, DAFF, IMF, Mecardo

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