Supply side support came from some much-needed rainfall but conflict in the Middle East did impact demand side intentions. The result was a mixed bag of higher trade and heavy lamb prices and a decline in the light lamb market.
The conflict in the Middle East presents some unique challenges for the lamb and sheep market. Whilst conflict does typically spike demand for food staples, the logistics challenge of access and distribution hampers the ability to provide. With air freight into key destination markets in the Middle East grounded we will likely see interruptions and lags for Australian sheepmeat into the Middle East. This will and has already begun to impact the light lamb market. This week the national light lamb indicator was 32¢ lower to 1063¢/kg cwt.
Rain did reach the majority of the southern sheep regions which is very good news, but there was strong variability in the amounts received. There was strong restocking interest coming from some producers in Victoria and South Australia which pushed the market higher but there are still some key regions that need more rain to support pasture growth before winter. This resulted in a boost to the market, but not a Rocketship higher.
Per MLA saleyard reports, Trade lambs were scarce in Wagga as the yarding skewed heavy, SA and Victorian buyers were pushing lighter trade spec lambs higher. Restocker demand was notable and strong interest in heavy pens from processors at Ballarat pushed the market dearer. South Australian Trade lambs improved 28¢ to 1059¢/kg cwt but restocker buyers were chasing stock in Victoria and NSW this week.
Restocker lamb indicator was up 30¢ to 1155¢/kg cwt, and Trade lambs increased 20¢ to 1137¢/kg cwt. Mutton was flat to 792¢/kg cwt. NLRS indicative yardings were down 29% for sheep (66k) and down 17% for lambs (144K).
Lamb slaughter continues to track around the 440-450K mark, which is 12% lower YoY. Numbers have been consistent which is important for the trade if the absolute height of capacity can’t be reached due to lower supply. Sheep slaughter has been yo-yoing and will likely be a bit more volatile for the next few weeks as producers decide on what they’re doing with breeding stock. Particularly those that didn’t get a big drink in this last week.
This week on Mecardo, Jamie-Lee Oldfield did an update on the West Australian Sheep flock (read more here). Despite strong domestic returns WA’s sheep sector has declined significantly. West to East transfers in 2025 were historically low and live sheep export numbers were down 33% YoY in 2025. Sheep slaughter in WA is 31% lower Year on Year despite strong demand.
The week ahead….
The differing fortunes for lamb indicators this week suggests that demand will be strong for the lighter trade lambs and lambs suitable to be put on feed. With the turmoil in the Middle East likely to put some further pressure on merino and light lamb indicators in the very short term.
Australian sheep flock estimates for the next three years are now more closely reflecting industry insights and assumptions after consecutive poor seasonal conditions in many
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Rain boosts price, light lambs miss out
The conflict in the Middle East presents some unique challenges for the lamb and sheep market. Whilst conflict does typically spike demand for food staples, the logistics challenge of access and distribution hampers the ability to provide. With air freight into key destination markets in the Middle East grounded we will likely see interruptions and lags for Australian sheepmeat into the Middle East. This will and has already begun to impact the light lamb market. This week the national light lamb indicator was 32¢ lower to 1063¢/kg cwt.
Rain did reach the majority of the southern sheep regions which is very good news, but there was strong variability in the amounts received. There was strong restocking interest coming from some producers in Victoria and South Australia which pushed the market higher but there are still some key regions that need more rain to support pasture growth before winter. This resulted in a boost to the market, but not a Rocketship higher.
Per MLA saleyard reports, Trade lambs were scarce in Wagga as the yarding skewed heavy, SA and Victorian buyers were pushing lighter trade spec lambs higher. Restocker demand was notable and strong interest in heavy pens from processors at Ballarat pushed the market dearer. South Australian Trade lambs improved 28¢ to 1059¢/kg cwt but restocker buyers were chasing stock in Victoria and NSW this week.
Restocker lamb indicator was up 30¢ to 1155¢/kg cwt, and Trade lambs increased 20¢ to 1137¢/kg cwt. Mutton was flat to 792¢/kg cwt. NLRS indicative yardings were down 29% for sheep (66k) and down 17% for lambs (144K).
Lamb slaughter continues to track around the 440-450K mark, which is 12% lower YoY. Numbers have been consistent which is important for the trade if the absolute height of capacity can’t be reached due to lower supply. Sheep slaughter has been yo-yoing and will likely be a bit more volatile for the next few weeks as producers decide on what they’re doing with breeding stock. Particularly those that didn’t get a big drink in this last week.
This week on Mecardo, Jamie-Lee Oldfield did an update on the West Australian Sheep flock (read more here). Despite strong domestic returns WA’s sheep sector has declined significantly. West to East transfers in 2025 were historically low and live sheep export numbers were down 33% YoY in 2025. Sheep slaughter in WA is 31% lower Year on Year despite strong demand.
The week ahead….
The differing fortunes for lamb indicators this week suggests that demand will be strong for the lighter trade lambs and lambs suitable to be put on feed. With the turmoil in the Middle East likely to put some further pressure on merino and light lamb indicators in the very short term.
Have any questions or comments?
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Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia
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Have any questions or comments?
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
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Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.