Total sheepmeat exports are 15% higher for the year-to-date, with demand from the Middle East and the US on the rise, while volumes to China have been lagging behind year-ago levels.
Lamb export volumes have been dipping
month-on-month since August, but remain well above five-year average figures,
and are still on track to hit record levels this year. Mutton on the other hand
increased to its highest monthly figure for the year in September and is
tracking 15% above the same period in 2023 for the year-to-date.
Looking at lamb first, the September total
was the lowest since January, with the 27,363 tonnes shipped in September lower
than both the previous month and the same month last year. It was still above
the five-year average for September and has kept year-to-date lamb exports at
15% above the same period in 2023 – a record year for both lamb and mutton.
Slaughter levels go some way to explaining the slight monthly dip in lamb
exports, with MLA reports showing lamb slaughter has been tracking lower
year-on-year for the past seven weeks.
The US was the biggest single country
market for Australian lamb in September and for the year-to-date, although
again volumes for the month were lower year-on-year. China took just over half
as much lamb from Australia in September than they did in 2023, with volumes
for the year-to-date 22% lower. When it
comes to mutton though, September saw China take their biggest monthly volume
for the year so far, 11% more than the same month last year, and 30% above the five-year
average. Total mutton exports for the year-to-date are tracking 15% above last
year, with the US also operating strongly in this market, with their September
volume more than double year-on-year and the average.
The Middle East has increased market share
for all Australian sheepmeat this year, picking up some of the slack left by
lacklustre Chinese demand. The 7234 tonnes of lamb sent to the Middle East in
September was less than the previous month, but 38% more than the five-year
average for the month, and 8% more than the same month last year. Year-to-date
lamb exports to the Middle East are 44% higher year-on-year. Their market share
has increased to 27% for the year so far, up from 20% in 2023, which is back to
levels not seen since 2018. While market
share has been higher in the past, lamb and mutton volumes to the Middle East
for 2024 so far are already higher than any calendar year total on record.
The Middle East mutton market share has
jumped to 31% in 2024, up from 17% last year, with volumes for the January to
September period 66% above the five-year average. As we can see from Figure 2,
most of this market has been picked up from Asia, which is sitting at its
lowest share since 2017, and volumes are currently tracking at 9% lower
year-on-year.
What does it mean?
Lower lamb slaughter in recent weeks has been primarily put down to planned maintenance closures for some processors, and tough seasonal conditions pushing back the arrival of new season lambs in some areas. It hasn’t been impacting the sheep kill however and the continued strength in that export market demonstrates it has likely been a supply rather than demand decline for lamb.
All volumes are still tracking at record levels, however, and the heat coming off domestic prices despite lower throughput in some categories indicates processors are confident there is plenty of product still to come, and will continue to support those export levels.
Key Points
- Lamb exports recorded lowest monthly totals since January in August and September but are still tracking higher year-on-year for the year-to-date.
- September mutton exports lift to the highest level for the year, 36% above the five-year average for the month.
- The Middle East picks up market share of both lamb and mutton exports, filling some of the gap left by China.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
