As our domestic lamb market heads into two weeks with public holidays - and hopefully some more widespread autumn moisture not long after that - the volatility of global markets has yet to impact demand. A record volume of Australian lamb was exported for the month of March, which was also the third-highest volume recorded for any month - with both of those higher figures achieved last year.
When we last looked at lamb exports we were speculating about potential tariffs and primarily what they might mean for Australian products headed into the US. With the tariff coming in at 10%, there will be some impact for sure, however, with Australia supplying nearly three-quarters of all lamb eaten in America, and both their domestic supply and supply from our only key competitor New Zealand holding steady or dropping, it isn’t likely to decimate demand.
The new tariffs were only put into force this month, so hasn’t played a role in the latest monthly and year-to-date figures. March volumes to the US were above the five-year average but fell from both the previous month and the same month last year. However, America remains our largest lamb market for the year, with just shy of 24% of the share, and volumes for January-March are up 4% in 2024.
Trump’s crackdown on imports could have a greater impact on another of Australia’s lamb markets. Volumes to China for March also dipped slightly from February but remained above the average and last year’s volumes. Year-to-date, exports to China are up 9% year-on-year and are tracking just above the same period in 2019, which was the record high for Australian lamb in China. Consequently, 2019 was also the last time the trade dispute between China and the US escalated, with China importing a quarter of all Australian lamb that year (current market share is 16%).
Other markets of note are Malaysia and Korea, both of which saw significant increases in lamb imports from Australia in March and have taken 33% and 26% for the year-to-date respectively. The increase in the tariff-free quota for lamb sent to the UK also seems to be playing a role in export volumes, with Britain taking 78% more Australian lamb for the year-to-date compared to 2024, and March being their largest monthly intake on record.
What does it mean?
According to Meat & Livestock Australia’s latest projections, lamb exports are expected to increase by 200,000 tonnes this year, setting another record, and so far, they are well on track to do so.
The market to watch will once again be China, to see if they ramp up demand for Australian lamb like last time they and the US escalated tariffs. They will have plenty of Australian supply and a low Australian dollar on their side. However, their economy is said to be not going into this trade dispute in the same shape as it was pre-COVID.
Key Points
- Australian lamb exports increased 4.5% in March, setting a new record volume for the month.
- Year-on-year for January to March lamb exports are up 3% on 2024, where a new annual export record was set.
- The Middle East imported the largest volume of Australian lamb in March, but the US remains the biggest market so far in 2025.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ABS, Nutrien, Mecardo
