The 38,904 bales offering this week proved too much for the market to absorb without a further price decline. This coupled with a fall in the exchange rate means that for overseas buyers, wools ‘bang for buck’ is now looking as good as it was in May.
It was hoped that
the softer Australian dollar may cushion the market this week but that wasn’t
the reality. The dollar ended sales at 0.654 US¢, down from 0.668 US¢ last
week, yet the Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) still lost 6¢ over the period to
1,125¢/kg. In USD terms, the EMI is now at 736US¢. While we did see it dip
below this in September briefly before that it was last at these levels in May.
The 17.5-micron merino average price is back down to 920US¢, which is close to
the main 900 support level of the past 15 years according to analysis by Andrew
Woods.
While weakness was
found across the entire Merino fleece segment, it was fibres 18.5MPG and under
that saw double-digit losses. That was for all bar the 16.5MPG in Melbourne
which experienced more tepid declines. Merino skirtings that were well-prepared
noted a bounce in price and the crossbred sector made some reasonable gains.
The 28MPG in Melbourne and 30MPG in Sydney came out most favourable in terms of
week-on-week price movements, both gaining an extra 10¢ from start to finish. The
28MPG in Sydney is currently 6% higher year on year in AUD terms and up 9% in
USD.
Growers showed a
bit more resistance to the results at auction, lifting the pass-in rate by 1.5
percentage points to 9.6%. This left 35,187 bales sold to the trade which was
12% under the same week last year.
Next week
The last two seasons have seen prices rally in November so let’s hope that’s a trend that continues. If we do see the dollar remain at current levels, there are reasonable grounds for this to be the case. But with the US Presidential election next week, we could be in store for a bit of currency volatility.
Next week’s offering is currently rostered at 37,991 bales with sales on Tuesday and Wednesday in Sydney and Freemantle, and Wednesday and Thursday in Melbourne to account for the Melbourne Cup.
One of the big challenges to the wool market in Australia is the growing demand for non-mulesed wool, with premiums for non-mulesed RWS-accredited wool rising
The wool market has maintained its steady start to the new selling season, posting its second consecutive weekly rise. The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) closed
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More bang for buyer buck
Next week
The last two seasons have seen prices rally in November so let’s hope that’s a trend that continues. If we do see the dollar remain at current levels, there are reasonable grounds for this to be the case. But with the US Presidential election next week, we could be in store for a bit of currency volatility.
Next week’s offering is currently rostered at 37,991 bales with sales on Tuesday and Wednesday in Sydney and Freemantle, and Wednesday and Thursday in Melbourne to account for the Melbourne Cup.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Nutrien Ag Solutions, AWEX, ICS , Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
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One of the big challenges to the wool market in Australia is the growing demand for non-mulesed wool, with premiums for non-mulesed RWS-accredited wool rising
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The wool market has maintained its steady start to the new selling season, posting its second consecutive weekly rise. The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) closed
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.