Mutton and Merinos reach record returns

Sheep in paddock in NSW, photo by Adele SMith

The split of green and red in our weekly sheep and lamb year-on-year table shows pretty clearly the current supply and demand dynamic in the market. More price records fell this week as lamb yardings fell to their lowest full five-day week figure in at least the past three years, and combined slaughter hit five-year lows. There is also a clear divide between heavy lambs and all other categories, perhaps showing some push back on current prices outside of our domestic market, which could also be having an impact on the record mutton returns.

Looking there first, the National Mutton Indicator closed the week 1¢/kg from the previous week at 914¢/kg. After breaking through the 900¢/kg barrier for the first time last week, the NMI peaked at 927¢/kg on Wednesday and now sits 34% higher year-on-year. This brings it 79% and 77% above the five and 10-year averages respectively. Putting this further into perspective, just two years ago the NMI was much less than half the current value. With nearly two thirds of the mutton throughput this week, NSW averaged 930¢/kg, while in Victoria it was up to 958¢/kg.

National sheep yardings dipped 7% for the week but was nearly half the same week last year. This was off the back of last week’s sheep slaughter which fell to below 46,000 head. This was an even bigger year-on-year dip, down 59%, and 38% lower than the previous week. Looking back as far as 2013, I can only find one other weekly sheep slaughter figure that was in the 40,000’s, and that was the corresponding week in 2020. Lamb yardings and slaughter was also down, albeit by nowhere near as much, down 37% and 18% respectively from the previous year.

Also reaching a new high this week was the Merino Lamb Indicator, reaching 1156¢/kg before closing the week at 1150¢/kg. This was a jump of 28¢/kg for the week, and 23% higher year-on-year. Again, NSW had the largest yardings, with Forbes and Wagga Wagga making up about 40% of the national yarding. Forbes topped the throughput and the pricing, averaging a significant premium above the indicator at 1231¢/kg. Trade lambs and light lambs also rose this week.

Headed in the other direction was heavy lambs, which lost 15¢/kg for the week and now sits at a less than 40¢/kg premium to the same time last year. Comparatively, all other national indicators are between 166¢/kg and 289¢/kg higher. Restocker lambs also fell this week, back 24¢/kg, but they sit at the largest year-on-year premium of all the indicators, giving them more room to move historically. The differential in average heavy lamb prices from yard to yard was significant this week. Looking at the six yards which had an offering of over 1000 head (of heavy lambs), the price ranged from 1060¢/kg at Bendigo, Vic, to 1127¢/kg at Forbes. It wasn’t necessarily a state divide, however, with Ballarat, VIC and Wagga Wagga, NSW averaging within 1¢/kg of each other.

Next week

Rainfall in parts of southern Australia and the onset of some colder weather could restrict supply further in the coming week. Using the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator’s five-year-average as a price reference, returns are generally stronger for producers from now through to November. We will be watching how processors and export markets react to the current trajectory.

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo

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