After a February to forget, April has started with a bang. Miracle mutton continues to march upward, and the seasonality of supply is now setting the saleyard agenda for lamb markets.
NLRS reported that national lamb yardings at the time of writing sat at 171,000 head, which is a 18% week-on-week decline, tilting the supply equation in favour of the market. The rainfall in the last week across New South Wales did more than just tilt the market; lamb indicators across the board took the elevator up as the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) rose 46¢ this week to 817¢/kg cwt.
Restocker demand ramped up with the National restocker lamb indicator improving 80¢ to 777¢/kg cwt (<22kg carcase weight lambs headed back to the paddock). The signals from the processing sector are clear that there is handsome reward for heavy weight articles no matter the age at present. Despite a 4000 head increase in throughput of heavy lambs from yards to processors, the National Heavy Lamb Indicator improved 27¢ to 821¢/kg cwt.
The national mutton indicator improved 123¢ this week to 551¢/kg cwt, up 28% jump week on week. There’s plenty in favour of the mutton market at the moment. Firstly, the 9% decline week on week of mutton supply to the yards was enough to get processor buyers to get the elbows out. Demand continues its epic pace to start the year; sheep slaughter last week again eclipsed 200,000 head, and year to date is 14% higher year to year. Chinese demand for mutton on the export front remains humming, and expectations are for this to ramp up in the short term.
This week on Mecardo, Jamie-Lee Oldfield provided an update on the Live Sheep export trade (Read More Here). Australian producers and the markets that import their sheep look to be exploring other avenues with export numbers for the first two months of the year at 88% below the five-year average, with only 18,205 sheep exported.
The week ahead….
With most of the gains achieved prior to ‘Liberation Day, ’ it’s not clear if there will be a negative response to the tariffs at the saleyard level. Considering our sheepmeat competitors fared equal or worse on the tariff front, it’s unlikely to shift saleyard demand too quickly in one direction or the other. The rush before Anzac Day and rain landing on pasture will continue to drive the market.
Standard livestock market analysis centres around supply, with shifts in demand usually gradual, and rarely to the downside. The odd ‘Black Swan’ event can see
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Mutton leaps over the $5 mark
NLRS reported that national lamb yardings at the time of writing sat at 171,000 head, which is a 18% week-on-week decline, tilting the supply equation in favour of the market. The rainfall in the last week across New South Wales did more than just tilt the market; lamb indicators across the board took the elevator up as the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) rose 46¢ this week to 817¢/kg cwt.
Restocker demand ramped up with the National restocker lamb indicator improving 80¢ to 777¢/kg cwt (<22kg carcase weight lambs headed back to the paddock). The signals from the processing sector are clear that there is handsome reward for heavy weight articles no matter the age at present. Despite a 4000 head increase in throughput of heavy lambs from yards to processors, the National Heavy Lamb Indicator improved 27¢ to 821¢/kg cwt.
The national mutton indicator improved 123¢ this week to 551¢/kg cwt, up 28% jump week on week. There’s plenty in favour of the mutton market at the moment. Firstly, the 9% decline week on week of mutton supply to the yards was enough to get processor buyers to get the elbows out. Demand continues its epic pace to start the year; sheep slaughter last week again eclipsed 200,000 head, and year to date is 14% higher year to year. Chinese demand for mutton on the export front remains humming, and expectations are for this to ramp up in the short term.
This week on Mecardo, Jamie-Lee Oldfield provided an update on the Live Sheep export trade (Read More Here). Australian producers and the markets that import their sheep look to be exploring other avenues with export numbers for the first two months of the year at 88% below the five-year average, with only 18,205 sheep exported.
The week ahead….
With most of the gains achieved prior to ‘Liberation Day, ’ it’s not clear if there will be a negative response to the tariffs at the saleyard level. Considering our sheepmeat competitors fared equal or worse on the tariff front, it’s unlikely to shift saleyard demand too quickly in one direction or the other. The rush before Anzac Day and rain landing on pasture will continue to drive the market.
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Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, BOM, Mecardo
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Monster March for lamb exports
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Title rainfall forecast forces flock to market
The uptick in the sheep and lamb market last week was short lived, with most prices dropping. But it was more than likely rainfall –
Black Swans taking shine off mutton rise?
Standard livestock market analysis centres around supply, with shifts in demand usually gradual, and rarely to the downside. The odd ‘Black Swan’ event can see
Mutton leaps over the $5 mark
After a February to forget, April has started with a bang. Miracle mutton continues to march upward, and the seasonality of supply is now setting
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.