The rain is still falling in southern NSW as I write this, so it could be a touch premature to forecast how the sheep market will respond, but as it has been just over 12 months since we witnessed the biggest weekly increase in the National Mutton Indicator on record, it is a good opportunity to see how it is faring. Especially since it looks to have broken some new records in recent weeks.
Three months ago we looked at the potential for the mutton price to rise if there was a solid start to autumn (article available here), and one could argue that start has been received in many sheep producing regions in southern Australia, which teamed with the ever evident decline in flock numbers has sent the National Mutton Indicator (NMI) sky-high. It closed last week at 790¢/kg, which was 50% above the same time last year, and 54% above the five-year-average. It was the highest price point for that particular week on record, with current autumn returns well and truly outpacing the most recent surge at this time of year in 2020-21.
The NMI reached a new all-time high price of 837¢/kg last month, or an average of $206/head. Interestingly, despite the 30¢/kg dip between now and then, the average price per head as of today has risen on the Meat & Livestock Australia price gauge to $220, indicating a rise in the weights of the sheep eligible for the NMI. Taking a broader look, for the year-to-date, the NMI is averaging 782¢/kg, a 45% increase on the same period in 2025. In 2020, the average NMI for the same period was 639¢/kg, or 18% lower.
We’ve looked at the projected sheep slaughter for the year compared to actual figures recently, but supply continues to be at the centre of the rise, and regardless of the price, is unlikely to ramp up anytime soon. At just over 121,000 head, the weekly average sheep slaughter for the year so far is trending 32% lower than the same time last year. It is also 5% lower than the same period in 2020. This is almost directly reflected on the demand side, with mutton export volumes having fallen 35% year-on-year for January through April, and 27% for the 12 months to April. Despite slaughter being 5% lower for the year so far compared to 2020, mutton exports were 28% higher this year for the first quarter.
Live export figures have diminished to the point of almost being irrelevant to the market, even in the west. For the first four months of the year just over 18,000 head of sheep have been exported live from Australia. Comparatively, that figure was about 177,000 head for the same period last year, and just shy of 430,000 head in 2020.
What does it mean?
Historically on average the NMI rises another 14% between now and mid-winter, before the spring flush of stock puts downward pressure on prices. If we use the latest week-end figure of 790¢/kg, this would bring the mutton market to 900¢/kg for the first time. If we go back to 2020 as a reference point, however, the NMI actually peaked in the first week of June, but it still jumped 9% before then, still putting it at a new high of about 860. Zooming out, the average NMI for calendar year 2020 was 5% lower than the average for the year-to-date, which would put 2026’s average NMI at 743¢/kg, more than $1/kg above the record high set in 2021.
Key Points
- The National Mutton Indicator has averaged 782¢/kg for the year so far, 45% higher than in 2025.
- Despite record prices, fall in sheep meat and live sheep export figures further highlight the supply shortage.
- Historical returns show scope for further improvement in the mutton price in the next two months.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, Mecardo
