Lamb indicators at a national level across the board saw easing demand as the offering for the most part was a reflection of the seasonal conditions to date. Saleyard reports per the MLA noted strong demand for grain-fed animals in Wagga and other centers saw notable easing for secondary types.
Lamb indicators averaged a 2-7% decline with Merino lambs seeing the steepest drop. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) declined 27¢ to 774¢/kg cwt. In WA, trade lambs improved 9¢ to 583¢/kg cwt but merino lambs on the West Coast continue to decline, losing 87¢ this week and now sit at 246¢/kg cwt.
Supply was up 14% on last week with numbers up 5% WoW for lamb but 36% for sheep. Despite the uptick in sheep supply, the National Mutton Indicator (NMI) declined just 7¢ to 408¢/kg cwt. Mutton values now sit 71% higher year on year.
The split of sheep to lambs at the saleyards this season is 37% to 63% which is on track with seasonality but the number of sheep to the yard’s year to date (1.29 million head) is 11% higher than last year. Despite this supply pressure (and seasonal conditions to boot not exactly favourable for restocking demand), mutton prices remain in relatively good shape. Over the last 5 seasons, since the start of February mutton prices have averaged a 4% improvement on the run to April, but in 2025 the mutton indicator is 16% higher than it was at the start of February which is the best it’s been since 2020.
It’s clear from saleyard reports that the top end of heavy lambs are still chasing a premium and are what processors want, but what the processors need at the moment more than anything is consistency and volume which mutton offers in spades at the moment. In comparison, lambs have been up and down in both number and condition since September. Lamb slaughter continues to trace numbers seen last year in line with seasonality and sheep slaughter for February and March so far has outperformed last season.
The week ahead….
Trade lamb values are 29% higher than they were this time last year and the focus will soon shift (independent of seasonal conditions) to the next crop of lambs. Saleyard reports have begun to cite more buyers bidding for lighter lambs to feed over winter, competition is one thing, but their willingness to pay higher will be dependent on rainfall between now and Anzac Day.
Standard livestock market analysis centres around supply, with shifts in demand usually gradual, and rarely to the downside. The odd ‘Black Swan’ event can see
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Mutton well ahead on last season
Lamb indicators averaged a 2-7% decline with Merino lambs seeing the steepest drop. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) declined 27¢ to 774¢/kg cwt. In WA, trade lambs improved 9¢ to 583¢/kg cwt but merino lambs on the West Coast continue to decline, losing 87¢ this week and now sit at 246¢/kg cwt.
Supply was up 14% on last week with numbers up 5% WoW for lamb but 36% for sheep. Despite the uptick in sheep supply, the National Mutton Indicator (NMI) declined just 7¢ to 408¢/kg cwt. Mutton values now sit 71% higher year on year.
The split of sheep to lambs at the saleyards this season is 37% to 63% which is on track with seasonality but the number of sheep to the yard’s year to date (1.29 million head) is 11% higher than last year. Despite this supply pressure (and seasonal conditions to boot not exactly favourable for restocking demand), mutton prices remain in relatively good shape. Over the last 5 seasons, since the start of February mutton prices have averaged a 4% improvement on the run to April, but in 2025 the mutton indicator is 16% higher than it was at the start of February which is the best it’s been since 2020.
It’s clear from saleyard reports that the top end of heavy lambs are still chasing a premium and are what processors want, but what the processors need at the moment more than anything is consistency and volume which mutton offers in spades at the moment. In comparison, lambs have been up and down in both number and condition since September. Lamb slaughter continues to trace numbers seen last year in line with seasonality and sheep slaughter for February and March so far has outperformed last season.
The week ahead….
Trade lamb values are 29% higher than they were this time last year and the focus will soon shift (independent of seasonal conditions) to the next crop of lambs. Saleyard reports have begun to cite more buyers bidding for lighter lambs to feed over winter, competition is one thing, but their willingness to pay higher will be dependent on rainfall between now and Anzac Day.
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Data sources: AWEX, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.