It’s out with the old and in with the new at the nations saleyards this week. New season lambs are on the march and are splitting buyers with the variation of weight and condition. Older sheep were swarming the yards, but demand was up to the task.
The biggest cohort of lambs since January this year made its
way to the yards this week, with preliminary data suggesting the number eclipsed
260,000 lambs. It could’ve been even higher though, per MLA saleyard reports,
Wagga yardings were impacted by local storm conditions causing bidders to up
the ante for heavy lambs.
Further south and the big jump in throughput saw the market
open softer in Ballarat and with plenty of stock to choose from, Bendigo buyers
prioritised “fresher conditioned stock”.
In Hamilton, however, quality was excellent and attracted interstate,
supermarket and local buyers pushing lambs higher. On the West Coast, lamb
supply dipped in Muchea, causing keen bidding for the top-end new season lambs
and Katanning saw restocker demand for light lambs but limited processor
interest.
When it comes to lambs at the moment, lighter lambs are
out-populating the heavy lambs considerably, driving a premium for finished
stock and pushing restocker-type lambs lower. The National Heavy Lamb Indicator
improved 26c to 843c/kg cwt and the National Restocker lamb indicator lost 34c
to 664c/kg cwt. On balance, the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI)
lost 9c to 789c/kg cwt.
Preliminary NLRS data has national sheep yardings this week
at over 124,000 head, the highest number since March this year. Victorian sheep
yardings were 34% higher week on week but the wave of supply didn’t drag
sellers below the surface. The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) improved 10c to
324c/kg cwt and is now sitting more than double (160%) last year’s price.
As detailed in our recent commentary Mutton supply has been
booming at the yards this spring and it looks to have ended up in Chinese
supermarket refrigerators as mutton exports broke monthly records set in the
mid 1990’s. As investigated by Angus Brown on Mecardo this week, the big export
numbers look less like national liquidation but a symptom of the sheer size of
the flock (read
more here).
Renewed demand for mutton out of China is important for the
trade as the flock navigates through the plateau of the flock reaching
maturity. What is less reassuring is consideration as to why the Chinese mutton
market has kicked on all of a sudden. A shift away from importing lamb shows us
that consumers in China are choosing more affordable cuts (a reflection on the
economic climate in China). The sheer
volume of mutton China has imported suggests getting their hands on volume
right now is more important than it was a few months ago, (I wonder why?).
Next week
Lighter lambs aren’t the end of the world with lamb exports to the Middle East still going strong, but what is the limit of restocker appetites? Government slaughter data released next week should provide a clearer picture of the room available to restock.
Contracting supply and rain were key ingredients in a much stronger lamb and sheep market this week. Seasonal conditions have conspired with robust processing demand
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly livestock slaughter and meat production figures for September last week. The numbers explain a lot about
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Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
New season lambs cause buyers to ‘Weight’and see
The biggest cohort of lambs since January this year made its way to the yards this week, with preliminary data suggesting the number eclipsed 260,000 lambs. It could’ve been even higher though, per MLA saleyard reports, Wagga yardings were impacted by local storm conditions causing bidders to up the ante for heavy lambs.
Further south and the big jump in throughput saw the market open softer in Ballarat and with plenty of stock to choose from, Bendigo buyers prioritised “fresher conditioned stock”. In Hamilton, however, quality was excellent and attracted interstate, supermarket and local buyers pushing lambs higher. On the West Coast, lamb supply dipped in Muchea, causing keen bidding for the top-end new season lambs and Katanning saw restocker demand for light lambs but limited processor interest.
When it comes to lambs at the moment, lighter lambs are out-populating the heavy lambs considerably, driving a premium for finished stock and pushing restocker-type lambs lower. The National Heavy Lamb Indicator improved 26c to 843c/kg cwt and the National Restocker lamb indicator lost 34c to 664c/kg cwt. On balance, the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lost 9c to 789c/kg cwt.
Preliminary NLRS data has national sheep yardings this week at over 124,000 head, the highest number since March this year. Victorian sheep yardings were 34% higher week on week but the wave of supply didn’t drag sellers below the surface. The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) improved 10c to 324c/kg cwt and is now sitting more than double (160%) last year’s price.
As detailed in our recent commentary Mutton supply has been booming at the yards this spring and it looks to have ended up in Chinese supermarket refrigerators as mutton exports broke monthly records set in the mid 1990’s. As investigated by Angus Brown on Mecardo this week, the big export numbers look less like national liquidation but a symptom of the sheer size of the flock (read more here).
Renewed demand for mutton out of China is important for the trade as the flock navigates through the plateau of the flock reaching maturity. What is less reassuring is consideration as to why the Chinese mutton market has kicked on all of a sudden. A shift away from importing lamb shows us that consumers in China are choosing more affordable cuts (a reflection on the economic climate in China). The sheer volume of mutton China has imported suggests getting their hands on volume right now is more important than it was a few months ago, (I wonder why?).
Next week
Lighter lambs aren’t the end of the world with lamb exports to the Middle East still going strong, but what is the limit of restocker appetites? Government slaughter data released next week should provide a clearer picture of the room available to restock.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, BOM, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Defying seasonality
Contracting supply and rain were key ingredients in a much stronger lamb and sheep market this week. Seasonal conditions have conspired with robust processing demand
Lamb forecast fits with future figures
Despite record-high slaughter figures for lamb so far this year, there are plenty of lambs left in the paddock according to the latest Sheep Producers
Here comes the rain again
Spring is coming to an end, but the consequences of the dry southern winter continue to drive the market. The search for weight is creating
Early indications of weaker lamb supply for 2025
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly livestock slaughter and meat production figures for September last week. The numbers explain a lot about
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.