There was an inward shift in both supply and demand this week for the cattle market, resulting in lower prices across the board. Multiple saleyards reported some buyers not fully operational, as well as varied quality between pens leading to erratic price variances.

The Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator was back 2% in price week on week to 635 ¢/kg with a 3% reduction in yardings to 20.7k head. Roma had the largest contribution to the indicator with 30% of supply. It averaged slightly below the indicator at 623¢/kg. Wagga was in second for supply but took out the highest average price for the week, 6% above the average at 673 ¢/kg.

Restocker Steers had the largest fall in value week on week down 5% to close the week at 345¢/kg. The price fall was despite a decrease in yardings of 14% which would normally put upward pressure on prices, signalling a drop in demand for the steers as well. Restock Heifers were flat week on week regarding value with a decrease in supply of 16%, the National indicator finished the week at 272¢/kg. This move closed the heifer to steer discount by 4% for the week to 21%. Processor cow prices were down 3% to 275 ¢/kg, despite yardings falling by 16%.

Beef exports to the United States have slowed compared to rates at the start of the year, but remain at elevated levels. According to Steiner Consulting, as of 21/9/2024, beef exports to the United States are 64% above the level of last year. They are predicting that 2024 will be 51% higher than 2023, which points to fewer exports compared to last year moving forward.

Yardings for the week were down by 14% in total with some shifts between states. QLD yardings were down by 28% compared to last week, and NSW was also back by 23%. In contrast, all other states saw a lift in saleyard throughput, but with 67% of supply coming from QLD and NSW, it was not enough to balance out.

Slaughter levels for the week prior were flat week on week, despite Victoria having a public holiday. That was due to NSW and QLD increasing slightly to cover the decrease in Victoria. East Coast levels for the week before are 12% higher than the same week last year and 25% on the 5-year average. Looking at the trend we are about to begin the run up to Christmas which should see an increase in slaughter levels which will increase demand. 

Next week

Public holidays in ACT, SA, NSW and QLD on Monday will see some saleyards not operating, this will result in fewer yardings for the week as well as a decrease in slaughter levels. There is some light precipitation forecasted for the east and west next week according to the BOM. A significant contraction in supply will likely be needed to really move the price dial up again though.

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Data sources: MLA, Steiner Consulting, Mecardo

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