There was an inward shift in both supply and demand this week for the cattle market, resulting in lower prices across the board. Multiple saleyards reported some buyers not fully operational, as well as varied quality between pens leading to erratic price variances.
The Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator was back 2% in
price week on week to 635 ¢/kg with a 3% reduction in yardings to 20.7k head.
Roma had the largest contribution to the indicator with 30% of supply. It
averaged slightly below the indicator at 623¢/kg. Wagga was in second for
supply but took out the highest average price for the week, 6% above the
average at 673 ¢/kg.
Restocker Steers had the largest fall in value week on week
down 5% to close the week at 345¢/kg. The price fall was despite a decrease in
yardings of 14% which would normally put upward pressure on prices, signalling
a drop in demand for the steers as well. Restock Heifers were flat week on week
regarding value with a decrease in supply of 16%, the National indicator
finished the week at 272¢/kg. This move closed the heifer to steer discount by
4% for the week to 21%. Processor cow prices were down 3% to 275 ¢/kg, despite yardings
falling by 16%.
Beef exports to the United States have slowed compared to
rates at the start of the year, but remain at elevated levels. According to Steiner
Consulting, as of 21/9/2024, beef exports to the United States are 64% above
the level of last year. They are predicting that 2024 will be 51% higher than
2023, which points to fewer exports compared to last year moving forward.
Yardings for the week were down by 14% in total with some
shifts between states. QLD yardings were down by 28% compared to last week, and
NSW was also back by 23%. In contrast, all other states saw a lift in saleyard
throughput, but with 67% of supply coming from QLD and NSW, it was not enough
to balance out.
Slaughter levels for the week prior were flat week on week,
despite Victoria having a public holiday. That was due to NSW and QLD
increasing slightly to cover the decrease in Victoria. East Coast levels for
the week before are 12% higher than the same week last year and 25% on the
5-year average. Looking at the trend we are about to begin the run up to
Christmas which should see an increase in slaughter levels which will increase
demand.
Next week
Public holidays in ACT, SA, NSW and QLD on Monday will see some saleyards not operating, this will result in fewer yardings for the week as well as a decrease in slaughter levels. There is some light precipitation forecasted for the east and west next week according to the BOM. A significant contraction in supply will likely be needed to really move the price dial up again though.
A recent query came across the desk relating to monsoon scenarios. A wet, or wetter than average, monsoon will obviously impact the market in different
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In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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No steering clear of price falls
The Eastern States Young Cattle Indicator was back 2% in price week on week to 635 ¢/kg with a 3% reduction in yardings to 20.7k head. Roma had the largest contribution to the indicator with 30% of supply. It averaged slightly below the indicator at 623¢/kg. Wagga was in second for supply but took out the highest average price for the week, 6% above the average at 673 ¢/kg.
Restocker Steers had the largest fall in value week on week down 5% to close the week at 345¢/kg. The price fall was despite a decrease in yardings of 14% which would normally put upward pressure on prices, signalling a drop in demand for the steers as well. Restock Heifers were flat week on week regarding value with a decrease in supply of 16%, the National indicator finished the week at 272¢/kg. This move closed the heifer to steer discount by 4% for the week to 21%. Processor cow prices were down 3% to 275 ¢/kg, despite yardings falling by 16%.
Beef exports to the United States have slowed compared to rates at the start of the year, but remain at elevated levels. According to Steiner Consulting, as of 21/9/2024, beef exports to the United States are 64% above the level of last year. They are predicting that 2024 will be 51% higher than 2023, which points to fewer exports compared to last year moving forward.
Yardings for the week were down by 14% in total with some shifts between states. QLD yardings were down by 28% compared to last week, and NSW was also back by 23%. In contrast, all other states saw a lift in saleyard throughput, but with 67% of supply coming from QLD and NSW, it was not enough to balance out.
Slaughter levels for the week prior were flat week on week, despite Victoria having a public holiday. That was due to NSW and QLD increasing slightly to cover the decrease in Victoria. East Coast levels for the week before are 12% higher than the same week last year and 25% on the 5-year average. Looking at the trend we are about to begin the run up to Christmas which should see an increase in slaughter levels which will increase demand.
Next week
Public holidays in ACT, SA, NSW and QLD on Monday will see some saleyards not operating, this will result in fewer yardings for the week as well as a decrease in slaughter levels. There is some light precipitation forecasted for the east and west next week according to the BOM. A significant contraction in supply will likely be needed to really move the price dial up again though.
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Data sources: MLA, Steiner Consulting, Mecardo
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Wet season fork in the road? We will know mon-sooner or later
A recent query came across the desk relating to monsoon scenarios. A wet, or wetter than average, monsoon will obviously impact the market in different
Sunshine State shines the brightest
Heavy rain in the southern areas of Queensland sent the restockers on a buying spree along with export buyers at the other end of the
EYCI’s big discount means plenty of room to move
The correlation between the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and the 90CL US export beef price is primarily driven by our domestic supply and can
Buyers place their faith in youth
Restocker yearling steers performed best this week, improving 12¢ week on week to 358¢/kg lwt and judging from MLA saleyard reports it wasn’t hard to
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.