Northern restocker conquest pushes heifers higher

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As seen this week when supply tightens at the yards, young cattle prices spike upward in the current climate. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator improved 33¢ to 670¢/kg cwt and gave us an indicative look at what the market can do when supply tapers off, but paddocks are getting a drink.

From a processors point of view, there are strong incentives to secure stock (90CL export beef pricing reached AU 982¢/kg) with the Aussie dollar weaker and US demand stronger. Additionally, competition from restockers at key saleyards is raising the stakes to secure supply as buyers travel further afield than usual. The National Processor Cow Indicator rose 11¢ to 270¢/kg lwt.

Restocker heifers and steers both improved 9¢ to 299¢/kg lwt and 392¢/kg lwt respectively. At a national level, the distance between lighter restocker spec heifers and steers is still 93¢/kg lwt but where competition amongst restockers this week was strongest the market saw restocker heifers pick up the pace. 

At Dalby, restockers joined the fray pushing the market higher as restocker heifers jumped 31¢ on average and steers rose 15¢. Recent rain in the Riverina has been well received but the Wagga market was dominated by a northern invasion of restockers chasing lighter cattle. Restocking steers improved by 26¢/kg lwt on average and heifers bought by restockers gained 52¢/kg lwt in Wagga.

As discussed this week in Angus Brown’s cattle analysis, the latest lotfeeding data shows that the lotfeeding sector continues to grow and is bullish about the current market. Placements into feedlots matched marketings of grainfed cattle in Q3 (read more here). 

We saw over Winter this year that strong demand and consistent availability of stock for processors allowed slaughter to increase which removed volatility in the market over winter. This was supportive of prices. With customers for beef lining up, processors will be keen to stay productive.  To keep up with the treadmill of beef demand, feeder spec cattle will be in hot demand throughout 2025.  Breeders exiting the system in the last 6 months further fuel the upside potential for next season.  

Next week

Cattle from down south are likely to keep coming forward with the feedbase still recovering from the Winter and Spring conditions. A buoyant market might bring more cattle forward still. If northern producers hold onto cattle instead of selling now, the processors will be keen to secure the cattle that are available and could potentially pay premiums to do so on the run to Christmas.

Northern buyers showed this week that securing supply matters most and the steer and heifer spread might narrow if push comes to shove.

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Data sources: Nutrien Ag Solutions, MLA, Mecardo

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