Since widespread autumn rain failed to eventuate in southern Australia, a north-south differential has been evident in the drivers of the cattle market. It comes as no surprise that saleyard throughput gives us a clear indication of that, with northern yarding numbers trending well below those in the south.
National saleyard throughput is currently averaging just shy of 55,000 head a week, according to National Livestock Reporting Service figures. This is about 12%, or 6,700 head, below the 2024 weekly average. Year-to-date totals are also below last year, as of last week sitting at 13%, or about 210,000 head less. Looking at the longer term, current yarding numbers are above the five-year average and the second highest since 2019.
While yardings don’t equal slaughter, they generally follow a similar track, and slaughter for 2025 was projected by Meat & Livestock Australia in March to rise this year by 3%, which would indicate that prior to the season playing out as it has, yardings also were expected to have exceeded last year’s. When it comes to the remainder of the year, traditionally there aren’t huge differentials in throughput from season to season, meaning that while weekly numbers increase at certain times of the year, it is not enough to substantially impact averages or year-end totals.
The charts clearly show us that it is Queensland that has been the outlier, sitting below both year-ago and five-year average levels for the majority of the year. The Queensland saleyard weekly average throughput number is currently 43% lower than last year, and 28% below the five-year figure. Year-to-date numbers support this, sitting 44% lower than the same time in 2024.
There are a few factors at play here, with the strong seasonal conditions in the north equating to both more retained stock for breeding or fattening, and likely more stock finished and sent direct to slaughter, with reports that currently northern processors are heavily booked. South of the border, however, it is a different story. Weekly average throughput in NSW is nearly at 26,000 head, 6% above last year, and 62% higher than the five-year number.
It isn’t slowing down either, with the past four weeks of NSW throughput between 70 and 90% above average. The weekly average for the year-to-date is the highest it has been for at least the past 12 years, and likely in record territory. Victoria, which usually has about half the weekly yarding numbers of NSW, is trending along the same lines as the national figures, just below last year but well up on the historical amount.
What does it mean?
The supply outlook for the remainder of the year looks to continue on its current trajectory, with Queenslanders stocking up or having them at the right weights to send them direct – whether that be to lotfeeders, processors or live export. The south on the other hand will be more dependent on spring rainfall, but any increase is unlikely to fill the current shortfall to reach the same highs of last year. Competition from the north could put prices in a position that will continue to entice young cattle into the market come spring even with good rain, while another failed season in the south will likely push even more cattle onto the market.
Key Points
- Saleyard throughput for the year-to-date is trending below 2024 levels, despite expectations of increased slaughter in 2025.
- Average national yardings also lower year-on-year, but above the five-year-average.
- North-south divide evident as Queensland yards track below average and New South Wales/Victoria above.
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
