High tide marks get higher as buyers are not keen to miss out on the big boy lambs still around. Its good going for those that still have them, but indicators are still performing strongly for lighter lambs.
The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) jumped 92¢ to 1171¢/kg cwt. With trade lambs rapidly approaching $12/kg cwt and currently sitting 39% higher than this time last year, those with lambs that have weight are benefitting big time from the winter supply lull.
For those sitting on new crop lambs destined for spring marketing, Light lambs for processing continue to sit at 980c/kg cwt, resisting the upward momentum of the heavier categories. Restocker appetite for light lambs in this market was lower this week, as the National restocker lamb indicator eased 44¢ to 885¢/kg cwt. Christmas week pricing for lambs that would need to be hand-fed in many parts of the south is likely a big ask, but watching heavy grainfed lambs continue to become more valuable will be tempting.
The National Heavy Lamb Indicator is still taking the elevator up, improving 39¢ to 1137c/kg cwt, a 3.3% WoW improvement. Scarcity continues to be the main driver as export-heavy lambs supply continues to plummet at the yards (Figure 2). Stock that qualifies for the heavy lamb indicator (26kg + cwt) for the year to date is now 20% lower than last year. Looking at last year’s spring pattern (a very dry run in aswell) it’s unlikely this lack of export lambs is going away anytime soon.
Export demand in some destinations is slowing but is coming off a red-hot pace as investigated by Jamie-Lee Oldfield this week on Mecardo (read more here). Total sheepmeat exports broke the financial year record for 2024-25. So the motivation for these export lamb premiums isn’t without merit.
Exports have been a slam dunk so far for sheepmeat but the market is beginning to throw some spanners in the works. US lamb imports have been lower since tariff introductions in April and the Middle East is down YTD for lamb and mutton volumes from Australia. Trade policy, rapidly increasing prices and conflict are beginning to show some impact. Even so, volumes are still well above recent history, and China has been making up for the slack and buying big recently since April.
Next week
Some slight declines in export demand will be outpaced by a lack of supply of export market lambs. Filling kill floors is still the priority, so attention at the yards might start to shift elsewhere.
The latest ABARES outlook for livestock products has sheepmeat production dropping for the 2025–26 financial year, pushing prices higher and potentially boosting global demand even
Total sheep and lamb saleyard throughput fell this week, and so did most price indicators, as plenty of supply, proximity to holiday processor shutdowns, and
The October Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS) provides some very important information regarding the number of lambs on the ground, the type of lambs, and
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Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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Onwards and upwards except for supply
The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) jumped 92¢ to 1171¢/kg cwt. With trade lambs rapidly approaching $12/kg cwt and currently sitting 39% higher than this time last year, those with lambs that have weight are benefitting big time from the winter supply lull.
For those sitting on new crop lambs destined for spring marketing, Light lambs for processing continue to sit at 980c/kg cwt, resisting the upward momentum of the heavier categories. Restocker appetite for light lambs in this market was lower this week, as the National restocker lamb indicator eased 44¢ to 885¢/kg cwt. Christmas week pricing for lambs that would need to be hand-fed in many parts of the south is likely a big ask, but watching heavy grainfed lambs continue to become more valuable will be tempting.
The National Heavy Lamb Indicator is still taking the elevator up, improving 39¢ to 1137c/kg cwt, a 3.3% WoW improvement. Scarcity continues to be the main driver as export-heavy lambs supply continues to plummet at the yards (Figure 2). Stock that qualifies for the heavy lamb indicator (26kg + cwt) for the year to date is now 20% lower than last year. Looking at last year’s spring pattern (a very dry run in aswell) it’s unlikely this lack of export lambs is going away anytime soon.
Export demand in some destinations is slowing but is coming off a red-hot pace as investigated by Jamie-Lee Oldfield this week on Mecardo (read more here). Total sheepmeat exports broke the financial year record for 2024-25. So the motivation for these export lamb premiums isn’t without merit.
Exports have been a slam dunk so far for sheepmeat but the market is beginning to throw some spanners in the works. US lamb imports have been lower since tariff introductions in April and the Middle East is down YTD for lamb and mutton volumes from Australia. Trade policy, rapidly increasing prices and conflict are beginning to show some impact. Even so, volumes are still well above recent history, and China has been making up for the slack and buying big recently since April.
Next week
Some slight declines in export demand will be outpaced by a lack of supply of export market lambs. Filling kill floors is still the priority, so attention at the yards might start to shift elsewhere.
Have any questions or comments?
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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
Production down, but values still to rise
The latest ABARES outlook for livestock products has sheepmeat production dropping for the 2025–26 financial year, pushing prices higher and potentially boosting global demand even
Mutton market maintains momentum
Total sheep and lamb saleyard throughput fell this week, and so did most price indicators, as plenty of supply, proximity to holiday processor shutdowns, and
Survey marking numbers counter high slaughter rates
The October Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS) provides some very important information regarding the number of lambs on the ground, the type of lambs, and
Lighter lambs dominate supply as prices decline
Supply crept higher this week to 392k head for lamb and sheep through to the yards, and prices retracted as harvest in the south and
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.