Mecardo’s Percentiles update for June 2020.
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Percentiles are an important tool for assisting in the decision-making process. They can provide an indication of the range in which prices have moved and how much time they have spent at varying levels.
A percentile is a measure of how often, historically, prices have fallen above or below a particular price level. It gives a brief snapshot of whether a market has more upside or downside and how large this may be.
For example, if a price is at its 67th percentile, this means that 67% of historical prices have been below that value and 33% of prices higher. Similarly, a 90% percentile means that 90% of the time, prices have been lower and higher just 10% of the time.
Changes to local wheat forecasts crunching basis
Last week we looked at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences Crop Report, noting the strong growth in the forecast for