While beef export volumes have eased from the record highs of July, they continue to run well ahead of the average. The US market share of our exports is surging ahead, as strong demand continues to drive the trade.

In September Australian beef exports eased 6% from August and sat 12% off the record set in July.  Despite the easing, beef exports were still 16% above September 2023, and a massive 34% above the five-year average.

Figure 1 shows the rolling 12-month average beef export number surging higher.  The peak value for the rolling 12-month average was just over 112,000 tonnes back in 2014-2015.  The current 12-month rolling average is at 106,000 tonnes, and to reach record levels this time around the strong levels we are seeing will have to remain in place for another four months at least.

There has been much talk about the US market driving our exports, and this has continued through winter and early spring.  Figure 2 shows beef exports to the US have been 50-60% above the same month last year for the last three months and double the five-year average.

Beef exports to Japan have fallen relatively heavily in August and September, from peak numbers in June and July.  Slaughter rates haven’t slowed, but the type and weight of cattle are likely driving shifts in exports.  Generally, we see fewer heavy grassfed cattle hit the market in late winter and spring, with processors shifting to cows to continue to feed US demand.

Figure 3 shows that the US has taken market share from China and South Korea this year.  Exports to China have remained relatively steady for the best part of 19 months.  Exports to Korea seem to jump around more based on cattle slaughter and beef availability. 

It’s promising to see markets other than the ‘big 4’ still taking 24% of total beef exports.  Indonesia sits fifth, receiving 7% of beef exports.  The diversity of markets is good for beef pricing, as we can see currently with export prices, despite the strong supply.  

What does it mean?

Looking forward, Steiner is reporting US retail demand will ease as winter approaches, but this will be somewhat offset by seasonal lows in New Zealand slaughter. As such it looks like demand and prices for Aussie beef will remain strong. Strong export demand is no doubt required, with feedlot numbers moving ever higher, and spring turnoff approaching.

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Key Points

  • Beef exports have eased from highs but remain well above last year and 5-year averages.
  • Shifts in the type of cattle slaughtered have likely driven shifts in exports.
  • Export demand needs to remain strong to maintain current levels and drive prices higher.

Click on figure to expand

Click on figure to expand

Click on figure to expand

Data sources: DAFF, Steiner Consulting, MLA, Mecardo

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