Positive sentiment has herd size on the up?

US cattle herd, California

Confidence in the beef cattle market climbed in line with the market conditions in 2024, and this will push the herd size even higher in 2025. This is according to the latest Beef Producers Intentions Survey taken in November last year and released this month by Meat & Livestock Australia. While the survey is just a snapshot of those that participate, and we all know intentions can change overnight when the weather is involved, the relatively new data source is now 12 months old, meaning comparison with the previous version can offer further insight.

The headline is increased producer sentiment, climbing from just positive 11% in November 2023 to positive 47% the same month last year, with 56% of responders feeling positive about the future of the beef industry, compared to 38% 12 months prior. The increase was consistent across both southern and northern producers, with about 20% more producers in the positive camp across the board.

What this translates to in more tangible terms is herd size. The adult grass-fed beef cattle herd climbed just over 2 million head in the 12 months to November 2024. According to the survey, to be at 28.51 million. The survey forecasts this number to grow a further 6% to 30.15 million head in 2025, with 45% of producers intending to increase their herd numbers. While the survey doesn’t account for the total herd (such as calves and cattle-on-feed) this forecast rise does differ from the latest MLA industry projections estimate of a 2% decrease in the herd from 2024 to 2025.

Not surprisingly, but interesting to see in real figures, the breakdown of producer and trader sales changed substantially year-on-year, one would think primarily due to the drop in the market in the second half of 2023, and of course secondly because of the spring rainfall – or lack thereof – in some southern areas. Cattle slaughter averaged 16% above the five-year average according to National Livestock Reporting Service data last year, and MLA forecasts total slaughter to rise again in 2025.

The biggest change was to the overall number of actual and expected sales. From cow-calf producers, for the July 2023-June 2024 period, this was 14.7 million head, while for that 2024-25 period it was just 8.5 million. Breaking it down further, the 2023-24 season had 40% already sold or expected to be sold by the end of December 2023, with 60% of that number to be sold in the first half of 2024. The current survey shows 51% sold or expected to be sold by the end of December 2024, with the remaining 49% this year. Backgrounder/trader/grower/fattener responses had a similar decrease in expected sales and a breakdown of when those sales were.

What does it mean?

As we pointed out last week, the demand for Australian beef is strong enough to support current prices, but the supply and production capability side of the equation is dictating domestic returns. This producer intentions survey is just that – intentions, not actions – but it does give us some indication that turnoff might not be as high as previously expected this year, with more cattle already through the system, and plenty of producers keen to increase numbers.

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!

Print This Post

Key Points

  • Beef producer’s industry sentiment increased substantially in 2024, up 36% in the latest MLA survey.
  • Producer intentions forecast a further herd number increase this year, with the grass-fed adult beef cattle herd to rise above 30 million head.
  • Less cattle left to sell in the first half of 2025 year-on-year, according to producers.

Click on figure to expand

Click on figure to expand

Data sources: Mecardo, Meat and Livestock Australia

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!
Murray grey cattle and calves in green paddock
Cattle

Buyers back bidding

Values lifted this week on the back of tighter supply, compounded by increased demand from buyers. Rain on the east coast, with more forecast for

Read More »

Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?

Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks

Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published

Commodity conversations podcast cover image, a illustration of a sheep standing on a cow's back with grain either side
Listen to the podcast

Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.

Photo of a farmer surrounded by Merino sheep in dusty yards
MEET THE TEAM

Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape. 

Image of harvested grain pouring into a chaser bin
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE

We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.