While the weather continues to wreak havoc this week, the mutton market is proving an old farming proverb correct, there is money in mud. Plenty of sheep producing areas are still in a ‘green’ drought after receiving winter rain relief, but it has been enough to put positivity into the sheep and lamb market as prices continue to rise. And this week’s star performer is mutton, as both producers and processors begin to take stock of how many sheep have exited the industry in the past 12 months.
The national mutton indicator has soared past the 700¢/kg for only the second time, the first being in 2020 when that drought was considered broken, and currently sits at a record high of 780¢/kg. It has increased nearly $1/kg in the past month, with 60¢/kg of this happening in the past week. And it means the NMI has more than doubled year on year, rising 399¢/kg, or 102 percent, since the same week in 2024.
Rolling weekly throughput sits at 13,000 head lower week on week for the NMI, no doubt contributing to the price hike, however, National Livestock Reporting Service weekly sheep slaughter remains about 30 percent above the five and ten year average, and the average for the year so far is the second largest number in at least the past decade, only eclipsed by last year. Yardings are actually averaging higher year on year for the year to date, but last week fell below the average for the first five day week this year, sitting 21 percent below the ten year figure.
Meat & Livestock Australia’s Online Sheep Indicator has also been on the rise, giving insight into producer sentiment. It is now at 254¢/kg (liveweight), having lifted roughly the same values as the NMI over the past month and year. The OSI throughput is much more seasonal than saleyard mutton, with the head count sitting below 4,000 head for all but two weeks since March, while last spring they were consistently above 12,000 head.
Of course mutton hasn’t been the only category making moves in the past month, with trade and heavy lambs having experienced similar increases. The National Trade Lamb Indicator has broken the $12/head mark after having also seen a significant decrease in numbers in the past week. And it is the NTLI which can give us an indication of the NMI heading into spring.
The five year average NMI to NTLI discount is 267¢/kg. As we can see from Figure 2, it has been sitting significantly above this for the past two years, as the flock entered both a high flock number and dry seasonal conditions induced destocking phase. The NMI currently sits at about 430¢/kg below the NTLI. If we look back to the same time in 2020, it was at 197¢/kg, and traded consistently below 200¢/kg for the remainder of the year.
Processor demand has been the one consistent for the sheep market this year, and that is unlikely to waver in the spring, with restocker support now likely to enter the mix. Supply on the other hand is the interesting part of the equation, as the industry takes stock of what is left in the paddock. MLA’s March projections had sheep slaughter dropping 17 percent year on year in 2025, and year to date they are only 5 percent lower.
What does it mean?
Using the NTLI as our guidestone, there is certainly scope for mutton to move even higher as we move into spring. A potential ceiling scenario (if we assume trade lambs stay at current values, and the NMI discount shortens to five-year-average levels) where the two prices move 40% closer, would shift mutton above 900¢/kg. Given current strong flock numbers that is of course a long shot, but any upside will be a boon for producers who have got sheep left to sell.
Key Points
- The National Mutton Indicator has more than doubled in the past 12 months to 780¢/kg.
- Sheep supply has started to slip, and usual fourth quarter rise may not be as significant given high year-to-date turnoff.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat & Livestock Australia
