This week, StatsCan updated their production data and revealed what the trade and the farmer all knew — the 2025 crop was a record. StatsCan reported a record canola crop of 21.8mmt, 2.56mmt more than last year’s crop. Total wheat production rose 11% year over year to a record 40mmt in 2025, surpassing the previous record set in 2013. StatsCan also lifted their barley crop estimate to 9.7mmt, up some 19% from last year to join in the big global barley harvest party.
The impact has been felt mostly in the ICE canola pit, having traded down nearly C$20/t in two trading sessions. This feeds directly to our GM canola prices, having also seen cash prices tumble just as our canola harvest picks up pace.
ABARES’ December update also added more weight to the “bigger crop” narrative. National winter crop production is now forecast to rise 10% to 66.3mmt in 25/26 — the second-largest on record. Wheat is pegged 4% higher at 35.6mmt (29% above the 10-year average), barley up 18% to a record 15.7mmt (33% above average), canola up 13% to 7.2mmt, and lentils surging 51% to a record 1.9mmt.
Collectively, these upgrades reinforce a bearish tone for prices and strengthen importers’ confidence that supply is abundant and timing is on their side.
The Black Sea region remains a trouble spot, with Russia appearing to reject the latest peace attempts. The negotiations were described as ‘positive’, yet failed to achieve any kind of resolution or common ground. Ukraine has taken aim at Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet’, sinking a couple of unflagged merchant tankers believed to be used by Russia to get around Western oil sanctions. Russia has threatened to block access to all Black Sea passage for Ukrainian vessels. Thus, the problems continue to unfold with the potential for some risk premium to re-enter the market should things escalate.
Price pressure as production picks up
Next week
We’ll need to see some serious opportunistic importer demand to help steer this ship higher. US exports of corn and wheat continue to exceed expectations which is a good sign for demand, but the weight of supply from Europe, Black Sea and the Southern Hemisphere is going to keep prices anchored for the time being.
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Data sources: ABARES, Left Field Commodity Research, StatCan, Reuters, Next Level Grain Marketing, Mecardo
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