Saleyard sheep supply returned with a bit more vigour this week but remained at a significant deficit to the same time last year. Reflecting last week’s low yardings, the latest slaughter figures (seven days delayed) were also well down, with the mutton kill half of what it was this time last year. The renewed supply did put some downward pressure on the market this week, but in the wider scheme of things there seems to be very little which will push sheep and lamb returns down.
According to the National Livestock Reporting Service, the mutton slaughter figure last week was the lowest it has been since 2020 – which you will recall was when we saw a dramatic change in seasonal conditions and therefore sheep retention. This week the National Mutton Indicator fell 4.50¢/kg to 913¢/kg, showing plenty of resilience given the throughput increased by close to 13,000 head on the previous week.
Average saleyard prices for mutton reached as high as 980¢/kg in Ballarat, Vic, but NSW yards still averaged the highest collectively at 925¢/kg, with more than two-thirds of the yardings. The NMI is now sitting close to a third higher year-on-year. Compared to 2020, when slaughter was as low as last week and the NMI was tracking at a then record level for the time of year (having only been surpassed last year and this year), it’s 38% higher.
Trade lambs were the only category which experienced significant downward price movement this week, losing 37¢/kg to land at 1212¢/kg nationally. Price wise, restockers are the only category sitting higher, and only by about 1¢/kg at the moment, having climbed 25¢/kg this week. However, in terms of recent trends, the National Trade Lamb Indicator is about 15¢/kg higher than it was a month ago, which is the lowest premium of all major indicators outside of the restocker lambs, which are actually now below month-ago levels. The NTLI is also operating at the lowest year-on-year premium other than heavy lambs, just 18¢/kg above where it was the same week last year.
These two stats are telling two different stories in terms of the demand side. The NTLI and heavy lamb price (which lost 5¢/kg this week to sit at 1155¢/kg, just below where it was this time last year) operating at much closer levels to year-ago pricing indicates that processors have taken the foot of the pedal, either unable or unwilling to sustain any further price increases in these categories.
Restocker lambs are showing more week-to-week movement, jumping significantly this week but sitting below month-ago prices, but are by far at the highest year-on-year premium of any major category, showing that demand remains resilient, with price movement likely being dictated by quality and type on offer, and the weather for the week.
Next week
There is little sign at the moment we will see any significant uptick in mutton slaughter in the short term; however, lamb supply will be an interesting one to watch as we get closer to the changeover point from old lambs to new season suckers.
The lamb market showed some resilience this week with the majority of indicators experiencing a significant rise, while sheep prices held fully firm to slightly
Lamb and sheep markets peaked early in winter and easing prices whilst ahead of schedule remain in line with typical seasonality. With more winter condition
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Processors pull up, restockers charge on
According to the National Livestock Reporting Service, the mutton slaughter figure last week was the lowest it has been since 2020 – which you will recall was when we saw a dramatic change in seasonal conditions and therefore sheep retention. This week the National Mutton Indicator fell 4.50¢/kg to 913¢/kg, showing plenty of resilience given the throughput increased by close to 13,000 head on the previous week.
Average saleyard prices for mutton reached as high as 980¢/kg in Ballarat, Vic, but NSW yards still averaged the highest collectively at 925¢/kg, with more than two-thirds of the yardings. The NMI is now sitting close to a third higher year-on-year. Compared to 2020, when slaughter was as low as last week and the NMI was tracking at a then record level for the time of year (having only been surpassed last year and this year), it’s 38% higher.
Trade lambs were the only category which experienced significant downward price movement this week, losing 37¢/kg to land at 1212¢/kg nationally. Price wise, restockers are the only category sitting higher, and only by about 1¢/kg at the moment, having climbed 25¢/kg this week. However, in terms of recent trends, the National Trade Lamb Indicator is about 15¢/kg higher than it was a month ago, which is the lowest premium of all major indicators outside of the restocker lambs, which are actually now below month-ago levels. The NTLI is also operating at the lowest year-on-year premium other than heavy lambs, just 18¢/kg above where it was the same week last year.
These two stats are telling two different stories in terms of the demand side. The NTLI and heavy lamb price (which lost 5¢/kg this week to sit at 1155¢/kg, just below where it was this time last year) operating at much closer levels to year-ago pricing indicates that processors have taken the foot of the pedal, either unable or unwilling to sustain any further price increases in these categories.
Restocker lambs are showing more week-to-week movement, jumping significantly this week but sitting below month-ago prices, but are by far at the highest year-on-year premium of any major category, showing that demand remains resilient, with price movement likely being dictated by quality and type on offer, and the weather for the week.
Next week
There is little sign at the moment we will see any significant uptick in mutton slaughter in the short term; however, lamb supply will be an interesting one to watch as we get closer to the changeover point from old lambs to new season suckers.
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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
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Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.